The first half of 2023 has US LV sales estimated to have increased by 13.1% YoY, to 7.68 million units as the Biden Administration recovery continues. Volumes easily surpassed year-ago levels, due somewhat to 2022’s weakness, which was hurt by inventory shortages. June inventory levels are projected to have risen by ~2.2% MoM in June, to 1.85 million units in industry speak a days’ supply figure of 35 days, up from 33 days in May. Both domestic production and imports continue to improve, suggesting that inventory should increase during the coming months. However, sales remained 8.6% below 2019 levels in the first six months of the year, showing that there is still some way to go before the market recovers to its pre-pandemic state.

“In recent years we have become accustomed to almost constant change, but the story in the first half of 2023 was remarkably consistent. Light Vehicle sales continued the trend of solid results in June, without quite hitting the heights seen before the pandemic,” said David Oakley, Manager, Americas Sales Forecasts, GlobalData.

“As inventories have increased, some unfulfilled demand from the past two years of shortages was met, and willing buyers were found despite sky-high transaction prices and still-suppressed incentive levels. Fleet is shoring up the total market as retail sales are somewhat modest, but it was not unusual for 20% of the market to come from fleet channels before the pandemic, which is in line with what we have seen year-to-date. Economic forecasts for H2 2023 remain relatively gloomy, making us cautious about prospects for auto sales, but if the expected recession continues to be delayed, there is some upside risk over the next six months,” said Oakley.