January 2026 US auto sales are forecast to reach 1.13 million units, according to S&P Global Mobility. This equals an estimated sales pace of 15.2 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate, aka SAAR), a drop from the 16.0 million unit SAAR in December. However, mirroring the precedent from the prior two years – slower January sales following strong year-end close outs.*

“Weather-related impacts from cold weather and late-month winter storm activity will likely contribute to some of the mild January result,” said Chris Hopson, manager of North American light vehicle sales forecasting for S&P Global Mobility. “Setting up what could be some volatility for the monthly SAAR metric in the first half of 2026.”