Data and Commentary By European Light Vehicle Sales Forecasting Team*

• The latest selling rate for Western Europe rose month-on-month to 12.8 million units/year. That is well ahead of January and indeed ahead of the full-year outlook. Although this indicates the potential for more optimism, seasonality is playing a part here.
• In the UK market, February is generally a weak month before the new registration plate number in March, so even though the market appears to have done well, in absolute volumes terms, its contribution to overall regional sales has been modest.
• Regional Western Europe volumes for February 2024 still look weak (-17%) compared to February 2019.
• Germany’s PV market grew 5% YoY in February. The selling rate stood at 3.1 million units/year, which is the third 3 million+ selling rate in a row. However, the Germany economic outlook for the year appears tough and we are sceptical that the double-digit percentage growth of the market will continue for the full year.
• Spain has seen selling rates slow a little at the start of this year, even though the market is comfortably up in YoY terms (+10% for February).
• The French PV market achieved 142,000 vehicle registrations in February 2024, 13% higher than February 2023. The selling rate picked up slightly compared to January, reaching 1.8 million units/year. The market is forecast to finish 2024 at 1.9 million – higher than 2023, but still below the 2019 total.
• Italy’s PV market registered 147,000 units in February 2024, 13% higher than February 2023. The selling rate reached 1.6 million units/year. Again here, the easing of supply constraints should see underlying demand dictate sales in 2024.

*GlobalData
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