The January U.S. Sales Forecast Details

• Fleet sales are expected to total 210,247 units in January, up 1.9% from January 2025. Fleet volume is expected to account for 18.8% of total light-vehicle sales, up 0.9 percentage points from a year ago.
• Internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles are projected to account for 77.7% of new-vehicle retail sales, an increase of 2.7 percentage points from a year ago. Plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV) are on pace to make up 0.9% of sales, down 1.3 percentage points from January 2025, while electric vehicles (EV) are expected to account for 6.6% of sales, down 2.9 percentage points, and hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) are expected to account for 14.7% of new-vehicle retail sales, up 1.4 percentage points.
• U.S. final assembly vehicles are expected to make up 54.1% of sales in January, up 3.2 percentage points from a year ago.
• Trucks/SUVs are on pace to account for 83.1% of new-vehicle retail sales, up 1.5 percentage point from January 2025.
• Retail inventory levels are currently at 2.12 million units, a 1.4% decrease from January 2025.
• The industry’s inventory days of supply is 59 days in January, up from 2 days from a year ago.
• The average new-vehicle retail transaction price in January is expected to reach $45,880,up $512 from January 2025. Transaction price as a percentage of MSRP was down 0.2 percentage points from a year ago at 89.5%.
• Retail buyers are on pace to spend $39.7 billion on new vehicles, up $0.5 billion from January 2025.
• Average incentive spending per unit in January is expected to reach $3192, up $25 from January 2025. Incentive spending as a percentage of the average MSRP is expected to decrease to 6.2%, flat from January 2025.
• Average incentive spending per unit on trucks/SUVs in January is expected to be $3399, up $104 from a year ago, while the average spending on cars is expected to be $2596, up $36 from a year ago.
• Leasing is expected to account for 21.7% of sales this month, down 2.1 percentage points from a year ago.
• The average time a new vehicle remains in the dealer’s possession before sale is expected to be 57 days in January, flat from a year ago.
• 25.1% of vehicles sold in less than 10 days in January, down 4.9 percentage points from a year ago.
• Average monthly finance payments are on pace to be $760, up $24 from January 2025. The average interest rate for new-vehicle loans is expected to be 6.29%, down 0.48 percentage points from a year ago.
• So far in January, average used-vehicle retail prices are $28,550, up $490 from a year ago. Trade-in equity is trending towards $8091, which is up $293 from a year ago.
• 27.3% of trade-ins are expected to carry negative equity this month—an increase of 2.4 percentage points from January 2025.
• Finance loans with terms greater than or equal to 84 months are expected to reach 11.7% of finance sales this month, up 1.9 percentage points from January 2025.