Executive Summary
• The average new-vehicle retail transaction price in May is expected to reach $45,838, a 0.7% increase from May 2022. The previous high for any month at $47,362 was set in December 2022.
• Average incentive spending per unit in May is expected to reach $1788, up from $951 in May 2022. Spending as a percentage of the average MSRP is expected to increase to 3.7%, up 1.6 percentage points from May 2022.
• Average incentive spending per unit on trucks/SUVs in May is expected to be $1,698, up $721 from a year ago, while the average spending on cars is expected to be $1,421, up $567 from a year ago.
• Retail buyers are on pace to spend $46.9 billion on new vehicles, up $5.5 billion from May 2022.
• Truck/SUVs are on pace to account for 79.1% of new-vehicle retail sales in May.
• Fleet sales are expected to total 258,500 units in May, up 49.6% from May 2022 on a selling day adjusted basis. Fleet volume is expected to account for 19% of total light-vehicle sales, up from 15% a year ago.
• Average interest rates for new-vehicle loans are expected to increase to 7.0%, 206 basis points higher than a year ago.