Observations and Data

• Retail inventory levels are expected to finish around 1.7 million units, a 3.6% increase from January 2024 and a 44.7% increase from February 2023. Fleet mix is projected at 19.2%, down 1.9 percentage points from February 2023.
• Consumers are expected to spend~ $40.8 billion on new vehicles this month. This is the highest on record for the month of February, and 4.1% higher than February 2023.
• The average new-vehicle retail transaction price is declining due to rising manufacturer incentives, falling retailer profit margins and increased availability of lower-priced vehicles.
• Transaction prices in February are trending towards $44,045, down $1919 or -4.2% from February 2023.
• Trucks/SUVs are forecast to account for 79% of new-vehicle retail sales in February.
• Fleet sales are expected to total 233,279 units in February, down 7.7% from February 2023 on a selling day adjusted basis. Fleet volume is expected to account for 19.2% of total light-vehicle sales, down 1.9 percentage points from a year ago.
• Average interest rates for new-vehicle loans are expected to increase to 6.9%, 17 basis points higher than a year ago.

*GlobalData

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