September U.S. Forecast at a Glance

• Fleet sales are expected to total 200,819 units in September, down 1.5% from September 2024. Fleet volume is expected to account for 16.3% of total light-vehicle sales, down 0.3 percentage points from a year ago.
• Internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles are projected to account for 71.7% of new-vehicle retail sales, a decrease of 4.9 percentage points from a year ago. Plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV) are on pace to make up 2.6% of sales, up 0.5 percentage points from September 2024, while electric vehicles (EV) are expected to account for 12.2% of sales, up 2.6 percentage points, and hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) are expected to account for 12.4% of new-vehicle retail sales, up 0.7 percentage points.
• U.S. final assembly vehicles are expected to make up 55.0% of sales in September, up 4.1 percentage points from a year ago.
• Trucks/SUVs are on pace to account for 82.1% of new-vehicle retail sales, up 1.6 percentage points from September 2024.
• Retail inventory levels are currently at 2.21 million units, a 17.5% increase from September 2024.
• The industry’s inventory days of supply is 60 days in September, up from 54 days a year ago.
• The average new-vehicle retail transaction price in September is expected to reach $45,795,up $1,310 from September 2024. Transaction price as a percentage of MSRP fell to 89.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from a year ago.
• Retail buyers are on pace to spend $45.0 billion on new vehicles, up $3.5 billion from September 2024.
• Average incentive spending per unit in September is expected to reach $3,116, down $3 from September 2024. Incentive spending as a percentage of the average MSRP is expected to decrease to 6.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from September 2024.
• Average incentive spending per unit on trucks/SUVs in September is expected to be $3,244, down $54 from a year ago, while the average spending on cars is expected to be $2,492, up $167 from a year ago.
• Leasing is expected to account for 23.9% of sales this month, up 0.6 percentage points from a year ago.
• The average time a new vehicle remains in the dealer’s possession before sale is expected to be 50 days in September, up from 49 days a year ago.
• 30.8% of vehicles sold in less than 10 days in September, down 1.5 percentage points from a year ago.
• Average monthly finance payments are on pace to be $756, up $21 from September 2024. The average interest rate for new-vehicle loans is expected to be 6.51%, down 0.25 percentage points from a year ago.
• So far in September, average used-vehicle retail prices are $29,668, up $739 from a year ago. Trade-in equity is trending towards $8,430, which is up $534 from a year ago.
• 25.9% of trade-ins are expected to carry negative equity this month—an increase of 1.5 percentage points from September 2024.
• Finance loans with terms greater than or equal to 84 months are expected to reach 11.0% of finance sales this month, up 1.5 percentage points from September 2024.