US Auto Sales Forecast Trump Bump or Bumpy 25?

New and Used EV 2025 Sales Forecast – courtesy of and copyright Cox Automotive 17 December 2024 all rights reserved

Ken Zino of AutoInformed.com on US Auto Sales Forecast Trump Bump or Bumpy 25?

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Electric Vehicles

“As we delve into the broader electrification trends, it’s important to recognize the significant role that alternative power trains play in this,” said Stephanie Valdez Streaty, Director, Industry Insights at Cox. “These vehicles not only offer consumers more options, but also serve as a crucial gateway to pure electrification. In Q3 of 2024, alternative power trains made-up a record 20% of sales, up 1.7% from the previous month, year-over-year. Gas hybrid saw the biggest gain in the third quarter 18% volume growth. While plug ins hybrids were down 8 percent.”

Key Points on EVs
“In the gas hybrid market, Toyota leads and share with Hyundai seeing the biggest gain at one percentage point in the plug in market. Jeep and Toyota are leading with Kia achieving the largest gain at 2 percentage points. We’ve seen shifts in product pipelines as automakers respond to consumer demand for more hybrid vehicles and prepare for potential changes to emission regulations,” said . Valdez Streaty.

• Looking ahead to 2025, we expect continued growth in alternative power trains reaching one out of four in sales.
• Moving on to new EV sales, 2024 was definitely a year of more sales despite some bumps along the way and more to come while some new electric models flew off the lots. Others linger longer.
• The EV market continued to grow. We estimate a 12% increase in the fourth quarter over the prior year with an estimated 356,000 EV sold. This leads to a record year with approximately 1.3 million electric vehicles sold. Making up roughly 8% of all new sales, that will be a 7% year over year growth.
• We’ve seen shifts in the market share this year. The top three manufacturers are Tesla, Hyundai Motor Group and General Motors, with GM having the largest increase in market share year over year at 2.7%.
• At the brand level, even though Tesla’s market share has declined below 50%, the Model Y and Model 3 continue to hold the top two spots. Various other models are collectively taking away share from Tesla.
• In 2025, new EV sales will continue to rise, with market are expected to tip over 10%. The introduction of new models and charging infrastructure and advancements in battery technology will help drive this continued adoption.”

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