The February selling rate was estimated to be 15.0 million units/year, aka SAAR, down from 16.0 million units/year in January. However, as LMC observed last month, January’s rate appears to have been distorted by changing seasonality and the unique conditions in the market whereby a lack of supply is still constraining sales in some cases.

Continued strength in fleet volume recovery has nudged up the outlook for US Light Vehicle sales to 15.0 million units, an increase 9% from 2022 and 50,000 units higher than last month. The economy is also stronger than expected at the start of the year, as consumers remain resilient in their spending and the labor market continue to be steady. This could push the timing of a mild recession to later in 2023, according to LMC.