The usual problems remain – record high transaction prices, economic uncertainty, the Federal Reserve’s determination to send the economy into a recession via its ongoing interest rate increases, skimpy inventory caused by supply chain disruptions for some major automakers, notably Ford and Toyota – all make for a rerun of the flop show Pandemic Blues. So good luck reopening that show in 2023 with the same cast and plot.

“Interest rates for vehicle financing increased significantly throughout 2022 and are expected to increase further in first-half 2023. The average rate on a new-vehicle finance contract in January 2023 should reach 6.8%, an increase of 264 basis points year over year, says J.D. Power. The Fed increased the targeted range of the Fed Funds Rate by 25 basis points at its first meeting of 2023. This increase will push vehicle-financing rates higher in coming months, and we believe that the Fed will increase rates a couple more times before pausing later this year,” said Patrick Manzi, the Chief Economist of the National Automobile Dealers Association.