“The market winner in 2025 is expected to be General Motors. The market leader is forecast to end the fourth quarter with over 685,000 vehicles sold, and finish the year above 2.8 million, a year-over-year increase of more than 5%. GM’s sales in Q4, however, are forecast to be down from last year and last quarter, suggesting a loss of momentum going into 2026.

“Toyota will finish a strong second in 2025, with gains from both the Toyota and Lexus brands. The company’s sales are expected to increase 8.4% from last year, with market share rising from 14.5% to 15.5%. Toyota’s solid share gain is part of a broader trend in 2025, in which the largest automakers grew larger. Market share for the top four sellers – General Motors, Toyota Motor Corporation, Ford Motor Company, and Hyundai Motor Company – increased 2.6 points in 2025, while nearly all other automakers saw declines in both sales and share,” Cox said.

Forecast 2026

Cox Automotive’s Economic and Industry Insights team forecasts that the new-vehicle sales pace in 2026 will decline by 2.4% to 15.8 million. Factors such as slower economic growth, less job creation, and the lack of EV tax incentives are expected to affect vehicle sales in the year ahead. While most vehicle sales figures in 2025 exceeded expectations, the outlook for 2026 suggests a slowdown across many important metrics. Earlier this week, the team released its 2026 forecasts for the U.S. automotive market, highlighting five forces set to shape the auto industry in the coming year.