“At the risk of sounding like a broken record, July continued the trends that we have observed for several months now. As vehicle availability has improved, sales have grown, and the economy remains sufficiently strong to support the market’s activity, despite high transaction prices, rising interest rates and fears of a recession later in the year or in 2024,” said David Oakley, Manager, Americas Sales Forecasts, GlobalData.

“The share of the market represented by fleet sales took a step back from the preceding months, but this is a normal seasonal trend for July, and fleet is still a driving force behind the increase in total sales,” Oakley said.

General Motors led the market in July -making for a full year of being the number one manufacturer. However, the gap between GM and second-placed Toyota Group narrowed to around 23,000 units in July, the smallest difference since October 2022. The Ford F-150 retained its customary position as the bestselling model in the market, on ~43,000 units, with the Toyota RAV4 finishing ahead of the Tesla Model Y at 37,800, compared to an estimated ~34,600 units for the Model Y. The Compact Non-Premium SUV segment led the way in July, with a 20.1% share, ahead of Midsize Non-Premium SUVs at 15.0% and Large Pickup on 13.5%.

The outlook for US auto sales remains at 15.4 million units, an increase of 11% from 2022. While both retail and fleet volume continue to recover, the fleet share of total Light Vehicles is expected at 19%, the highest level since 2019. The forecast for 2024 remains at 16.0 million units with some upside if the economy avoids recession and begins to accelerate again, according to GlobalData.