“May sales appear to be holding up despite significant economic uncertainty,” Cox Automotive Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough said. “New-vehicle buyers today are more affluent than ever, so they may not be as impacted by inflationary pressures as much as other consumers who are more acutely feeling the sharply higher fuel costs. If the economy and stock market can remain on this growing but volatile path, new-vehicle sales will likely follow. However, those are two large necessities during extremely volatile times.”

In Cox Automotive’s considered view, the market is being shaped by competing factors now. The forecast calls for the vehicle sales pace to remain in the high-15 million to low-16 million range this month, ana slight change from earlier in the year and a pace similar to much of 2025.

“Although fuel prices are sharply higher and consumer sentiment is at historic lows, the stock market has returned to record highs, and the auto market is likely still benefitting from this year’s larger tax refunds and tax benefits,” Cox said.