Click to enlarge.
U.S. new-vehicle sales volume in May is expected to be mostly flat from year-ago levels, increasing a barely measurable 0.1%, according to the latest forecast from Cox Automotive. There are 26 selling days this May, which is the same as last month, but one less than May last year.*
“May sales appear to be holding up despite significant economic uncertainty,” Cox Automotive Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough said. “New-vehicle buyers today are more affluent than ever, so they may not be as impacted by inflationary pressures as much as other consumers who are more acutely feeling the sharply higher fuel costs. If the economy and stock market can remain on this growing but volatile path, new-vehicle sales will likely follow. However, those are two large necessities during extremely volatile times.”
In Cox Automotive’s considered view, the market is being shaped by competing factors now. The forecast calls for the vehicle sales pace to remain in the high-15 million to low-16 million range this month, ana slight change from earlier in the year and a pace similar to much of 2025.
“Although fuel prices are sharply higher and consumer sentiment is at historic lows, the stock market has returned to record highs, and the auto market is likely still benefiting from this year’s larger tax refunds and tax benefits,” Cox said.**
*AutoInformed on
**About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive says it is the world’s largest automotive services and technology provider. This results from the largest range of first-party data fed by 2.3 billion online interactions a year. Cox Automotive provides solutions for car shoppers, auto manufacturers, dealers, lenders and fleets. The company has 29,000+ employees on five continents and a portfolio of “industry-leading brands” that include Autotrader®, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, vAuto®, Dealertrack®, NextGear Capital™, CentralDispatch® and Cox Fleet®. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately owned, Atlanta-based company with $23 billion in annual revenue.
About Ken Zino
Ken Zino, editor and publisher of AutoInformed, is a versatile auto industry participant with global experience spanning decades in print and broadcast journalism, as well as social media. He has automobile testing, marketing, public relations and communications experience. He is past president of The International Motor Press Assn, the Detroit Press Club, founding member and first President of the Automotive Press Assn. He is a member of APA, IMPA and the Midwest Automotive Press Assn.
He also brings an historical perspective while citing their contemporary relevance of the work of legendary auto writers such as Ken Purdy, Jim Dunne or Jerry Flint, or writers such as Red Smith, Mark Twain, Thomas Jefferson – all to bring perspective to a chaotic automotive universe.
Above all, decades after he first drove a car, Zino still revels in the sound of the exhaust as the throttle is blipped during a downshift and the driver’s rush that occurs when the entry, apex and exit points of a turn are smoothly and swiftly crossed. It’s the beginning of a perfect lap.
AutoInformed has an editorial philosophy that loves transportation machines of all kinds while promoting critical thinking about the future use of cars and trucks.
Zino builds AutoInformed from his background in automotive journalism starting at Hearst Publishing in New York City on Motor and MotorTech Magazines and car testing where he reviewed hundreds of vehicles in his decade-long stint as the Detroit Bureau Chief of Road & Track magazine. Zino has also worked in Europe, and Asia – now the largest automotive market in the world with China at its center.
Trump-conomics – May 2026 U.S. Auto Sales Forecast Flat
Click to enlarge.
U.S. new-vehicle sales volume in May is expected to be mostly flat from year-ago levels, increasing a barely measurable 0.1%, according to the latest forecast from Cox Automotive. There are 26 selling days this May, which is the same as last month, but one less than May last year.*
“May sales appear to be holding up despite significant economic uncertainty,” Cox Automotive Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough said. “New-vehicle buyers today are more affluent than ever, so they may not be as impacted by inflationary pressures as much as other consumers who are more acutely feeling the sharply higher fuel costs. If the economy and stock market can remain on this growing but volatile path, new-vehicle sales will likely follow. However, those are two large necessities during extremely volatile times.”
In Cox Automotive’s considered view, the market is being shaped by competing factors now. The forecast calls for the vehicle sales pace to remain in the high-15 million to low-16 million range this month, ana slight change from earlier in the year and a pace similar to much of 2025.
“Although fuel prices are sharply higher and consumer sentiment is at historic lows, the stock market has returned to record highs, and the auto market is likely still benefiting from this year’s larger tax refunds and tax benefits,” Cox said.**
*AutoInformed on
**About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive says it is the world’s largest automotive services and technology provider. This results from the largest range of first-party data fed by 2.3 billion online interactions a year. Cox Automotive provides solutions for car shoppers, auto manufacturers, dealers, lenders and fleets. The company has 29,000+ employees on five continents and a portfolio of “industry-leading brands” that include Autotrader®, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, vAuto®, Dealertrack®, NextGear Capital™, CentralDispatch® and Cox Fleet®. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately owned, Atlanta-based company with $23 billion in annual revenue.
About Ken Zino
Ken Zino, editor and publisher of AutoInformed, is a versatile auto industry participant with global experience spanning decades in print and broadcast journalism, as well as social media. He has automobile testing, marketing, public relations and communications experience. He is past president of The International Motor Press Assn, the Detroit Press Club, founding member and first President of the Automotive Press Assn. He is a member of APA, IMPA and the Midwest Automotive Press Assn. He also brings an historical perspective while citing their contemporary relevance of the work of legendary auto writers such as Ken Purdy, Jim Dunne or Jerry Flint, or writers such as Red Smith, Mark Twain, Thomas Jefferson – all to bring perspective to a chaotic automotive universe. Above all, decades after he first drove a car, Zino still revels in the sound of the exhaust as the throttle is blipped during a downshift and the driver’s rush that occurs when the entry, apex and exit points of a turn are smoothly and swiftly crossed. It’s the beginning of a perfect lap. AutoInformed has an editorial philosophy that loves transportation machines of all kinds while promoting critical thinking about the future use of cars and trucks. Zino builds AutoInformed from his background in automotive journalism starting at Hearst Publishing in New York City on Motor and MotorTech Magazines and car testing where he reviewed hundreds of vehicles in his decade-long stint as the Detroit Bureau Chief of Road & Track magazine. Zino has also worked in Europe, and Asia – now the largest automotive market in the world with China at its center.