Tag Archives: Cox Automotive

Trumped! – 2026 Vehicles Sales Forecasts All Down

“The top theme over the last year or so has really been affordability, and this isn’t only related to the auto industry but really about everything facing consumers. And the issue is ALL about purchasing power or more clearly – the erosion of purchasing power for many Americans over the last several years. We’ve all seen new highs in the stock market that have happened many times this year, and those equity gains and asset appreciation really help high income households. Those consumers are driving a lot of consumption across the economy, but the wealth effect gains are concentrated at the very top of the pyramid. The vast majority of the US population sees little gain from the wealth effect and their number one source of income are the paychecks they take home every week. That’s why inflation matters,” said Jeremy Robb, Chief Economist Cox Automotive. Continue reading

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Affordability – Used Vehicle Prices Hit Three Year High!

The Cox Automotive analysis of vAuto Live Market View data released today show used-vehicle inventory increased in May as the retail sales pace braked.* Average listing prices rose for the third consecutive month, reaching $26,918, the highest since mid-2023 and … Continue reading

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Vehicle Affordability – Price Increases Small as Incentives Grow

“Average transaction prices are rising 2 – 4% year-over-year across key vehicle segments, powered by a convergence of product cycles and supply dynamics,” said Erin Keating, Executive Analyst, Cox Automotive, the parent company of KBB. “Redesigned SUVs from Toyota, Kia, Jeep, and Hyundai are commanding higher prices out of the gate, while Ford’s F-Series production constraints are tightening truck inventory, lifting average transaction prices, with freshened Ram pickup stepping in to capture buyers at the premium end,” said Keating. Continue reading

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Trump-conomics – May 2026 U.S. Auto Sales Forecast Flat

U.S. new-vehicle sales volume in May is expected to be mostly flat from year-ago levels, increasing a modest 0.1%, according to the latest forecast from Cox Automotive. There are 26 selling days this May, which is the same as last month, but one less than May last year.*

“May sales appear to be holding up despite significant economic uncertainty,” Cox Automotive Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough said. “New-vehicle buyers today are more affluent than ever, so they may not be as impacted by inflationary pressures as much as other consumers who are more acutely feeling the sharply higher fuel costs. If the economy and stock market can remain on this growing but volatile path, new-vehicle sales will likely follow. However, those are two large necessities during extremely volatile times.” Continue reading

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U.S. New Vehicle Sales Forecast Flat in March

“After a year marked by policy-driven sales volatility, the new-vehicle market has settled into a slower rhythm in early 2026,” said Jeremy Robb, chief economist at Cox Automotive. “The pull-ahead demand created by last spring’s tariff announcements and, later, the loss of EV tax credits is (sic) now all firmly in the rear-view mirror. While the stimulus of a good tax-return season is a positive, the new-vehicle market today is being shaped by higher vehicle prices, ongoing inflationary pressures, and still-elevated interest rates.” Continue reading

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Trump Slump Forecast – February 26 New Vehicle Sales Drop

“The new-vehicle sales pace shifted to a lower gear in Q4 of last year, and that weakness is expected to continue through this month as well,” said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive. Continue reading

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Cox Fleet Commences for Trucking and other Industries

“Cox Fleet is a clear signal of our long-term commitment to the fleets that keep our economy moving,” said Patrick Brennan, SVP of Cox Fleet. “By bringing our people, technology, and service capabilities together under one brand, Cox Fleet is designed to help clients improve uptime and better manage total cost of ownership.” Continue reading

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U.S. November New Vehicle Sales Forecast Down

November’s new-vehicle sales, when posted next week, are expected to fall in both volume and pace from last year’s levels. The November new-vehicle sales pace, or seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), is forecast today by Cox Automotive to reach 15.7 million. This is up slightly from October’s 15.3 million pace, but significantly down from last year’s 16.5 million level. Through October, the monthly SAAR has averaged 16.2 million.*

“The new-vehicle sales pace had been expected to slow in the fourth quarter, and that’s what we are seeing,” said Cox Automotive Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough. “The headwinds from higher prices and fewer government subsidies for electric vehicles are finally slowing the market after a surprisingly strong previous six months. Continue reading

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Used Vehicle Prices Down as Consumer Sentiment Drops

“We started to see stronger sales trends in late July and early August for retail and wholesale markets, and that’s causing some additional volatility in wholesale pricing trends in recent weeks, against a stronger comparison from last year,” said Jeremy Robb, senior director of Economic and Industry Insights at Cox Automotive. Continue reading

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Used Vehicle Prices Poised to Soar?

“While it’s not yet spring, wholesale values increased more than we usually see in the month of January, with particular strength at the end of the month,” said Jeremy Robb, senior director of Economic and Industry Insights at Cox Automotive. “The Manheim index is at the highest point since October 2023, after we experienced stronger-than-usual gains in non-seasonally adjusted values. Currently, retail days’ supply at used dealerships sits nine days lower than last year, and we are just now on the cusp of starting the spring wholesale market.”

Notably absent was any mention of the Trump tariff chaos, which likely will significantly increase new vehicle prices and thereby increasing demand and prices for used vehicles.
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U.S. November New Vehicle Sales – 16M SAAR

The election has sparked much speculation about the potential effects of a new Trump mis-administration on the auto market, particularly concerning electric vehicles and emissions standards given the general economic incompetence of Trump ‘s first term that destroyed the economy and jobs, as well as abandoning valuable global alliances and scoffing at climate change as a “Chinese Hoax,” AutoInformed observes. Continue reading

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On Sale? New Vehicle Incentives Rise in October

Kelley Blue Book data reported today shows that the average transaction price (ATP) for a new vehicle in the U.S. was $48,623 in October, up from September and higher than year-ago levels. Incentives increased again as many automakers try to clear their inventory. The electric vehicle ATP dropped month-over-month, but was higher year over year, with incentives at their highest level this year.

“’Tis the season for automakers to make their final push for 2024 sales,” said Cox Automotive Executive Analyst Erin Keating. “While some automakers focus on managing production, many will likely maintain or even increase their seasonal incentives to attract buyers. With competition intensifying, these strategies will be crucial in maintaining market share and driving end-of-year sales. Our team is generally optimistic for new-vehicle sales to close out the year – extra incentives will certainly help.” Continue reading

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Manheim – U.S. Wholesale Used Vehicle Prices Up In August

“The trend of higher wholesale values at Manheim continued into August from July, as we saw prices appreciate every week except the last,” said Jeremy Robb, senior director of Economic and Industry Insights at Cox Automotive. “Sales conversion continued to rise and held at much higher levels than prior years for the month as more buyers came to markets to replenish supply for used retail inventory. We know lease maturities are on the decline, and used retail days’ supply has tightened over the last month. That will likely keep pressure on buyers at Manheim in the next several weeks.” Continue reading

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August U.S. Auto Sales Highest Year-to-Date

After U.S. Labor Day holiday weekend sales, initial August new-vehicle sales results, as expected, are indicating healthy volume gains, according to Cox Automotive.* Full results will be in by the end of the week, but early reports suggest the extra selling days helped the auto market navigate August with strength, according to Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke  in his latest Auto Market Report released this morning.

“New- and used-vehicle sales volumes are at the highest level for 2024. With growing demand, supply has tightened, and prices are creeping up. For the first time this year, the popular 3-year-old product – a staple of the used-vehicle business our team tracks closely – experienced a price increase in both the wholesale and retail markets,” said Smoke. Continue reading

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Strength in August Auto Retail Market but…

In the Cox Auto Market Report published this morning, Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke noted that  first half of August saw massive volatility in the stock market, but halfway through the month there is  strength in the retail sale vehicle market.”

“Keep your seatbelts buckled as the election, geopolitics and the Fed are all likely to create more volatility over the next several weeks,” Smoke cautioned. Continue reading

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