Click to enlarge.
Cox Automotive today released its mid-year 2026 review of the U.S. auto industry.* It’s forecasts for all types of vehicle sales are all down year-over-year. The average American clearly is being hurt by the Trump mis-Administration economic policies and its alliance and foreign affairs actions backed by the State Department.
“The top theme over the last year or so has really been affordability, and this isn’t only related to the auto industry but really about everything facing consumers. And the issue is ALL about purchasing power or more clearly – the erosion of purchasing power for many Americans over the last several years. We’ve all seen new highs in the stock market that have happened many times this year, and those equity gains and asset appreciation really help high income households. Those consumers are driving a lot of consumption across the economy, but the wealth effect gains are concentrated at the very top of the pyramid. The vast majority of the US population sees little gain from the wealth effect and their number one source of income are the paychecks they take home every week. That’s why inflation matters,” said Jeremy Robb, Chief Economist Cox Automotive.**
Click to enlarge.
“Over the last five years consumer price inflation has risen on average 4.9% each and every year. That’s a compounding effect just like everyone wants to see in their 401K or investment portfolio – BUT – it means prices continue to rise and compound each and every year. Those inflation trends are what really have impacted consumers and the reason most of them call THE top concern. And if we think about the higher gas prices we’ve seen since the Middle East conflict, it impacts the bottom half of consumers much more than higher income groups. The average American has continued to see the erosion of their purchasing power,” said Robb.
What is Selling – Toyota to Beat GM as Top Company?
Click to enlarge.
“Looking at the top 10 segments, which represent about 88% of all sales, we can see a theme emerging in the new vehicle market in 2026. Through May, the most affordable segments like Compact Car, Compact SUV, Sub-compact SUV – all priced less than $40,000 – are down this year compared to last year. High interest rates and high prices are impacting affordability for these segments’ customer base. However, the more expensive segments like $65,000 full-size trucks, $73,000 luxury mid-size SUVs, and $79,000 full-size SUVs are also down this year. Those segments all saw gains or were flat last year, said Charlie Chesbrough, Senior Economist Cox Automotive.
“What is winning in this market? mid-size car, mid-size trucks and mid-size SUVs are all seeing gains. As we stated in March – Mid is In – and now in June – Mid is Still In. These buyer trends may be showing a shift towards value in the marketplace. Affordability concerns and economic uncertainty may be leading more affluent segments to lose their customers to the more practical. And high prices may be leading customers of the most affordable segments to pull-back from buying new vehicles and push them into the used market.
“The winner of second quarter and first half of 2026 sales is General Motors. However they shouldn’t rest on their laurels. They will finish Q2 with just under 705,000 vehicles, but this is over a 5% decline from Q2 last year. First half sales for GM will be down over 7%, costing them 0.8% market share compared to H1 last year. All GM brands have declining first half sales led by Buick and Cadillac, which are down over 20%. In second place in the first half of 2026 is Toyota, and they are showing some upward momentum as well. Q2 volume will finish 19% higher from Q1, well above the 13% national average. Big gains from redesigned 4Runner and hybrid Camrys are leading the way, helping Toyota gain 0.6% market share in the first half. By year’s end, at this pace with less than a 100,000 sales lead, GM could lose the title as top selling US manufacturer to Toyota.
“Hyundai is also having a strong first half led by Kia and Genesis brands. Their Half 1 sales are expected to rise over 3%, leading to a 0.7% increase in market share over the first half last year. And another OEM enjoying success in 2026 is Stellantis. After losing share every year since 2019, their first half sales will be up nearly 5%, leading to a 0.6% increase in market share compared. Big gains from redesigned Ram Truck and Jeep Grand Wagoneer are leading their sales reversal.
“Having a challenging first half of the year is Ford Motor. Their sales are expected to finish down over 10% from the first half of 2025. Big losses from F-Series and the discontinued Escape are key contributors. And Ford needs to look over their shoulder because if these sales trends continue over the next year, Hyundai could overtake them as the number three car seller in the US market.
“Tesla too is having a challenging 2026. Their sales in the first half are expected to be down nearly 15% from last year. The loss of federal subsidies is certainly having an effect, but so is the lack of new products in the face of increasingly strong EV competition. And, unique to Tesla, tens of thousands of used, off-lease Model 3 and Ys are providing additional competition to their new products,” said Chesbrough.
*AutoInformed on
**Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive says [with sound data backing the claim – AutoCrat.] it is the world’s largest automotive services and technology provider. Fueled by the largest breadth of first-party data fed by 2.3 billion online interactions a year, Cox Automotive tailors leading solutions for car shoppers, automakers, dealers, retailers, lenders, and fleet owners. The company has 29,000-plus employees on five continents and a family of trusted brands that includes Autotrader®, Dealertrack®, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, NextGear Capital™, and vAuto®, Dealertrack®, NextGear Capital™, CentralDispatch® and Cox Fleet®.. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately owned, Atlanta-based company with $23 billion in annual revenue.
About Ken Zino
Ken Zino, editor and publisher of AutoInformed, is a versatile auto industry participant with global experience spanning decades in print and broadcast journalism, as well as social media. He has automobile testing, marketing, public relations and communications experience. He is past president of The International Motor Press Assn, the Detroit Press Club, founding member and first President of the Automotive Press Assn. He is a member of APA, IMPA and the Midwest Automotive Press Assn.
He also brings an historical perspective while citing their contemporary relevance of the work of legendary auto writers such as Ken Purdy, Jim Dunne or Jerry Flint, or writers such as Red Smith, Mark Twain, Thomas Jefferson – all to bring perspective to a chaotic automotive universe.
Above all, decades after he first drove a car, Zino still revels in the sound of the exhaust as the throttle is blipped during a downshift and the driver’s rush that occurs when the entry, apex and exit points of a turn are smoothly and swiftly crossed. It’s the beginning of a perfect lap.
AutoInformed has an editorial philosophy that loves transportation machines of all kinds while promoting critical thinking about the future use of cars and trucks.
Zino builds AutoInformed from his background in automotive journalism starting at Hearst Publishing in New York City on Motor and MotorTech Magazines and car testing where he reviewed hundreds of vehicles in his decade-long stint as the Detroit Bureau Chief of Road & Track magazine. Zino has also worked in Europe, and Asia – now the largest automotive market in the world with China at its center.
Trumped! – 2026 Vehicles Sales Forecasts All Down
Click to enlarge.
Cox Automotive today released its mid-year 2026 review of the U.S. auto industry.* It’s forecasts for all types of vehicle sales are all down year-over-year. The average American clearly is being hurt by the Trump mis-Administration economic policies and its alliance and foreign affairs actions backed by the State Department.
“The top theme over the last year or so has really been affordability, and this isn’t only related to the auto industry but really about everything facing consumers. And the issue is ALL about purchasing power or more clearly – the erosion of purchasing power for many Americans over the last several years. We’ve all seen new highs in the stock market that have happened many times this year, and those equity gains and asset appreciation really help high income households. Those consumers are driving a lot of consumption across the economy, but the wealth effect gains are concentrated at the very top of the pyramid. The vast majority of the US population sees little gain from the wealth effect and their number one source of income are the paychecks they take home every week. That’s why inflation matters,” said Jeremy Robb, Chief Economist Cox Automotive.**
Click to enlarge.
“Over the last five years consumer price inflation has risen on average 4.9% each and every year. That’s a compounding effect just like everyone wants to see in their 401K or investment portfolio – BUT – it means prices continue to rise and compound each and every year. Those inflation trends are what really have impacted consumers and the reason most of them call THE top concern. And if we think about the higher gas prices we’ve seen since the Middle East conflict, it impacts the bottom half of consumers much more than higher income groups. The average American has continued to see the erosion of their purchasing power,” said Robb.
What is Selling – Toyota to Beat GM as Top Company?
Click to enlarge.
“Looking at the top 10 segments, which represent about 88% of all sales, we can see a theme emerging in the new vehicle market in 2026. Through May, the most affordable segments like Compact Car, Compact SUV, Sub-compact SUV – all priced less than $40,000 – are down this year compared to last year. High interest rates and high prices are impacting affordability for these segments’ customer base. However, the more expensive segments like $65,000 full-size trucks, $73,000 luxury mid-size SUVs, and $79,000 full-size SUVs are also down this year. Those segments all saw gains or were flat last year, said Charlie Chesbrough, Senior Economist Cox Automotive.
“What is winning in this market? mid-size car, mid-size trucks and mid-size SUVs are all seeing gains. As we stated in March – Mid is In – and now in June – Mid is Still In. These buyer trends may be showing a shift towards value in the marketplace. Affordability concerns and economic uncertainty may be leading more affluent segments to lose their customers to the more practical. And high prices may be leading customers of the most affordable segments to pull-back from buying new vehicles and push them into the used market.
“The winner of second quarter and first half of 2026 sales is General Motors. However they shouldn’t rest on their laurels. They will finish Q2 with just under 705,000 vehicles, but this is over a 5% decline from Q2 last year. First half sales for GM will be down over 7%, costing them 0.8% market share compared to H1 last year. All GM brands have declining first half sales led by Buick and Cadillac, which are down over 20%. In second place in the first half of 2026 is Toyota, and they are showing some upward momentum as well. Q2 volume will finish 19% higher from Q1, well above the 13% national average. Big gains from redesigned 4Runner and hybrid Camrys are leading the way, helping Toyota gain 0.6% market share in the first half. By year’s end, at this pace with less than a 100,000 sales lead, GM could lose the title as top selling US manufacturer to Toyota.
“Hyundai is also having a strong first half led by Kia and Genesis brands. Their Half 1 sales are expected to rise over 3%, leading to a 0.7% increase in market share over the first half last year. And another OEM enjoying success in 2026 is Stellantis. After losing share every year since 2019, their first half sales will be up nearly 5%, leading to a 0.6% increase in market share compared. Big gains from redesigned Ram Truck and Jeep Grand Wagoneer are leading their sales reversal.
“Having a challenging first half of the year is Ford Motor. Their sales are expected to finish down over 10% from the first half of 2025. Big losses from F-Series and the discontinued Escape are key contributors. And Ford needs to look over their shoulder because if these sales trends continue over the next year, Hyundai could overtake them as the number three car seller in the US market.
“Tesla too is having a challenging 2026. Their sales in the first half are expected to be down nearly 15% from last year. The loss of federal subsidies is certainly having an effect, but so is the lack of new products in the face of increasingly strong EV competition. And, unique to Tesla, tens of thousands of used, off-lease Model 3 and Ys are providing additional competition to their new products,” said Chesbrough.
*AutoInformed on
**Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive says [with sound data backing the claim – AutoCrat.] it is the world’s largest automotive services and technology provider. Fueled by the largest breadth of first-party data fed by 2.3 billion online interactions a year, Cox Automotive tailors leading solutions for car shoppers, automakers, dealers, retailers, lenders, and fleet owners. The company has 29,000-plus employees on five continents and a family of trusted brands that includes Autotrader®, Dealertrack®, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, NextGear Capital™, and vAuto®, Dealertrack®, NextGear Capital™, CentralDispatch® and Cox Fleet®.. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately owned, Atlanta-based company with $23 billion in annual revenue.
About Ken Zino
Ken Zino, editor and publisher of AutoInformed, is a versatile auto industry participant with global experience spanning decades in print and broadcast journalism, as well as social media. He has automobile testing, marketing, public relations and communications experience. He is past president of The International Motor Press Assn, the Detroit Press Club, founding member and first President of the Automotive Press Assn. He is a member of APA, IMPA and the Midwest Automotive Press Assn. He also brings an historical perspective while citing their contemporary relevance of the work of legendary auto writers such as Ken Purdy, Jim Dunne or Jerry Flint, or writers such as Red Smith, Mark Twain, Thomas Jefferson – all to bring perspective to a chaotic automotive universe. Above all, decades after he first drove a car, Zino still revels in the sound of the exhaust as the throttle is blipped during a downshift and the driver’s rush that occurs when the entry, apex and exit points of a turn are smoothly and swiftly crossed. It’s the beginning of a perfect lap. AutoInformed has an editorial philosophy that loves transportation machines of all kinds while promoting critical thinking about the future use of cars and trucks. Zino builds AutoInformed from his background in automotive journalism starting at Hearst Publishing in New York City on Motor and MotorTech Magazines and car testing where he reviewed hundreds of vehicles in his decade-long stint as the Detroit Bureau Chief of Road & Track magazine. Zino has also worked in Europe, and Asia – now the largest automotive market in the world with China at its center.