“The winner of second quarter and first half of 2026 sales is General Motors. However they shouldn’t rest on their laurels. They will finish Q2 with just under 705,000 vehicles, but this is over a 5% decline from Q2 last year. First half sales for GM will be down over 7%, costing them 0.8% market share compared to H1 last year. All GM brands have declining first half sales led by Buick and Cadillac, which are down over 20%. In second place in the first half of 2026 is Toyota, and they are showing some upward momentum as well. Q2 volume will finish 19% higher from Q1, well above the 13% national average. Big gains from redesigned 4Runner and hybrid Camrys are leading the way, helping Toyota gain 0.6% market share in the first half. By year’s end, at this pace with less than a 100,000 sales lead, GM could lose the title as top selling US manufacturer to Toyota.

“Hyundai is also having a strong first half led by Kia and Genesis brands. Their Half 1 sales are expected to rise over 3%, leading to a 0.7% increase in market share over the first half last year. And another OEM enjoying success in 2026 is Stellantis. After losing share every year since 2019, their first half sales will be up nearly 5%, leading to a 0.6% increase in market share compared. Big gains from redesigned Ram Truck and Jeep Grand Wagoneer are leading their sales reversal.

“Having a challenging first half of the year is Ford Motor. Their sales are expected to finish down over 10% from the first half of 2025. Big losses from F-Series and the discontinued Escape are key contributors. And Ford needs to look over their shoulder because if these sales trends continue over the next year, Hyundai could overtake them as the number three car seller in the US market.

“Tesla too is having a challenging 2026. Their sales in the first half are expected to be down nearly 15% from last year. The loss of federal subsidies is certainly having an effect, but so is the lack of new products in the face of increasingly strong EV competition. And, unique to Tesla, tens of thousands of used, off-lease Model 3 and Ys are providing additional competition to their new products,” said Chesbrough.