“May global light-vehicle sales are estimated to have declined 4.0% year over year to 7.2 million units. As has become a recurring theme in recent months, growth in some markets – notably India and Brazil – was more than offset by losses in China. The selling rate for May was estimated at 89.3 million units, up from 88.6 million units in April,” said David Oakley, manager, Americas vehicle sales forecasts at GlobalData.

“The Chinese market continued to slide in May, with sales falling by 21% year over year, almost matching the year-to-date performance of a 21.5% year over year decline. The slow implementation of the new trade-in subsidy, along with price normalization as the government has stepped in to prevent price wars, has caused sales to slow markedly, even as China increases exports around the world. On the other hand, volumes in India are estimated to have grown by 25.9% year over year in May, as lower taxes and strong consumer sentiment boosted demand. Western Europe also delivered a year over year gain in May, of 2.5%, thanks to accelerating BEV adoption.

“June sales are expected to grow 3.0% from June 2025, to reach 7.9 million units. This would translate to a selling rate of 93.9 million units, up by 0.9% year over year. Although China is likely to see another year over year decline in June, this could be overcome by further growth in India, Japan, North America and Brazil.

“Our forecast for total global sales in 2026 has been revised down to 90.5 million units, compared to an outlook of 91.1 million units a month ago. This forecast would represent a 1.9% year over year decline, as relative weakness in China, along with headwinds from economic and trade factors, drag down the global industry,” said Oakley.