Click to enlarge.
Total U.S. new-vehicle sales for June 2026, including retail and non-retail transactions, are expected to reach 1,363,800, a 3.6% increase year-over-year, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData released today. Without adjusting for the number of selling days this means an increase of 8.0% from 2025. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 16.5 million units, up 0.8 million units from June 2025.*
“Stepping back to the broader picture, total new-vehicle sales for the first half of 2026 are projected to increase 1.2% over the first half of 2025,” said Thomas King, president of OEM solutions at J.D. Power. “Retail tells a softer story for the first half of 2026, with an expected decrease of 4.1% from the first half of 2025.”
“Evaluating the year-over-year results requires consideration of what happened a year ago. Last year, consumers were reacting to the perceived risk of higher prices from vehicle tariffs, and the resulting volatility makes simple year-over-year comparisons murky,” said King.
“Sales in March and April of 2025 were inflated as consumers rushed to showrooms and ‘pulled ahead’ their purchases ahead of anticipated tariffs. By May that pull-ahead had reversed into ‘payback,’ with an estimated 63,000 sales pulled out of May, and an additional 12,000 sales pulled out of June and into the preceding months. This explains the growth in retail sales in June compared to a year ago,” said King.
“Regarding affordability, the cost of financing a new vehicle keeps easing, though not by enough to neutralize the structural affordability pressures weighing on buyers. The average interest rate on new-vehicle loans is expected to fall 0.35 percentage points to 6.66%, the lowest June reading since 2022. However, the average transaction price of a new vehicle has increased to $46,387, an increase of 0.8% from a year ago, while average monthly finance payments have climbed 3.4% to $813, the highest ever for the month of June. A key driver of the higher monthly payment, despite longer loan terms, is lower trade-in equity. Many of the buyers returning to showrooms today purchased when prices were at their peak several years ago when inventory was scarce. This is manifesting itself as more buyers carrying negative equity on their trade-in. A total of 29.5% of trade-ins had negative equity in June, up 1.4 percentage points from a year ago.
“Manufacturers are leaning harder on discounts to keep buyers in the market. Average incentive spending per vehicle is trending towards $3,217, a 12.7% increase from a year ago. Part of that jump reflects tariff dynamics last year, since several OEMs made nonseasonal pullbacks in incentive spending last June as they cut discounts precautionary to offset tariff costs,” said King.
- Incentives as a percentage of MSRP are expected to hit 6.2% in June, up 0.6 percentage points from June 2025.
- For non‑EVs, average incentive spending per vehicle is trending towards $2,970, an 18.6% increase from a year ago.
- Incentive spending on EVs remains materially higher, expected to reach $9,824 per unit, up 3.1% from last year, which continues to underscore the role of discounting in supporting demand for electric vehicles.”
- Consumers are using longer loan terms to manage monthly payment affordability. Accordingly, 13.6% of loans now have terms of 84 months or longer, to help fill in part of the affordability gap.
“On a full-year basis, the 4.1% decline in retail sales, more than offset by rising sales to fleets, is notable, but not alarming. Supply constraints on several of the best-selling vehicles in the market account for most of the decline. That said, macroeconomic uncertainty, higher fuel prices and persistent affordability challenges present headwinds to new vehicle demand.
Retail sales volume growth with slightly higher transaction prices means that total retail consumer expenditure is projected to rise to $49.4 billion, an increase of $4.2 billion from June 2025,” said King
- The combination of elevated fuel prices and increased availability of vehicles with hybrid powertrains is driving a shift in the sales mix.
- Hybrid share of retail sales has climbed to 16.0%, up 2.3 percentage points.
- EV share has softened to 7.4% following the elimination of federal EV credits.
The Global Outlook – Broken China
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“May global light-vehicle sales are estimated to have declined 4.0% year over year to 7.2 million units. As has become a recurring theme in recent months, growth in some markets – notably India and Brazil – was more than offset by losses in China. The selling rate for May was estimated at 89.3 million units, up from 88.6 million units in April,” said David Oakley, manager, Americas vehicle sales forecasts at GlobalData.
“The Chinese market continued to slide in May, with sales falling by 21% year over year, almost matching the year-to-date performance of a 21.5% year over year decline. The slow implementation of the new trade-in subsidy, along with price normalization as the government has stepped in to prevent price wars, has caused sales to slow markedly, even as China increases exports around the world. On the other hand, volumes in India are estimated to have grown by 25.9% year over year in May, as lower taxes and strong consumer sentiment boosted demand. Western Europe also delivered a year over year gain in May, of 2.5%, thanks to accelerating BEV adoption.
“June sales are expected to grow 3.0% from June 2025, to reach 7.9 million units. This would translate to a selling rate of 93.9 million units, up by 0.9% year over year. Although China is likely to see another year over year decline in June, this could be overcome by further growth in India, Japan, North America and Brazil.
“Our forecast for total global sales in 2026 has been revised down to 90.5 million units, compared to an outlook of 91.1 million units a month ago. This forecast would represent a 1.9% year over year decline, as relative weakness in China, along with headwinds from economic and trade factors, drag down the global industry,” said Oakley.
*AutoInformed on
About Ken Zino
Ken Zino, editor and publisher of AutoInformed, is a versatile auto industry participant with global experience spanning decades in print and broadcast journalism, as well as social media. He has automobile testing, marketing, public relations and communications experience. He is past president of The International Motor Press Assn, the Detroit Press Club, founding member and first President of the Automotive Press Assn. He is a member of APA, IMPA and the Midwest Automotive Press Assn.
He also brings an historical perspective while citing their contemporary relevance of the work of legendary auto writers such as Ken Purdy, Jim Dunne or Jerry Flint, or writers such as Red Smith, Mark Twain, Thomas Jefferson – all to bring perspective to a chaotic automotive universe.
Above all, decades after he first drove a car, Zino still revels in the sound of the exhaust as the throttle is blipped during a downshift and the driver’s rush that occurs when the entry, apex and exit points of a turn are smoothly and swiftly crossed. It’s the beginning of a perfect lap.
AutoInformed has an editorial philosophy that loves transportation machines of all kinds while promoting critical thinking about the future use of cars and trucks.
Zino builds AutoInformed from his background in automotive journalism starting at Hearst Publishing in New York City on Motor and MotorTech Magazines and car testing where he reviewed hundreds of vehicles in his decade-long stint as the Detroit Bureau Chief of Road & Track magazine. Zino has also worked in Europe, and Asia – now the largest automotive market in the world with China at its center.
June 2026 U.S. Auto Sales Forecast Up 3.6%
Click to enlarge.
Total U.S. new-vehicle sales for June 2026, including retail and non-retail transactions, are expected to reach 1,363,800, a 3.6% increase year-over-year, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData released today. Without adjusting for the number of selling days this means an increase of 8.0% from 2025. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 16.5 million units, up 0.8 million units from June 2025.*
“Stepping back to the broader picture, total new-vehicle sales for the first half of 2026 are projected to increase 1.2% over the first half of 2025,” said Thomas King, president of OEM solutions at J.D. Power. “Retail tells a softer story for the first half of 2026, with an expected decrease of 4.1% from the first half of 2025.”
“Evaluating the year-over-year results requires consideration of what happened a year ago. Last year, consumers were reacting to the perceived risk of higher prices from vehicle tariffs, and the resulting volatility makes simple year-over-year comparisons murky,” said King.
“Sales in March and April of 2025 were inflated as consumers rushed to showrooms and ‘pulled ahead’ their purchases ahead of anticipated tariffs. By May that pull-ahead had reversed into ‘payback,’ with an estimated 63,000 sales pulled out of May, and an additional 12,000 sales pulled out of June and into the preceding months. This explains the growth in retail sales in June compared to a year ago,” said King.
“Regarding affordability, the cost of financing a new vehicle keeps easing, though not by enough to neutralize the structural affordability pressures weighing on buyers. The average interest rate on new-vehicle loans is expected to fall 0.35 percentage points to 6.66%, the lowest June reading since 2022. However, the average transaction price of a new vehicle has increased to $46,387, an increase of 0.8% from a year ago, while average monthly finance payments have climbed 3.4% to $813, the highest ever for the month of June. A key driver of the higher monthly payment, despite longer loan terms, is lower trade-in equity. Many of the buyers returning to showrooms today purchased when prices were at their peak several years ago when inventory was scarce. This is manifesting itself as more buyers carrying negative equity on their trade-in. A total of 29.5% of trade-ins had negative equity in June, up 1.4 percentage points from a year ago.
“Manufacturers are leaning harder on discounts to keep buyers in the market. Average incentive spending per vehicle is trending towards $3,217, a 12.7% increase from a year ago. Part of that jump reflects tariff dynamics last year, since several OEMs made nonseasonal pullbacks in incentive spending last June as they cut discounts precautionary to offset tariff costs,” said King.
“On a full-year basis, the 4.1% decline in retail sales, more than offset by rising sales to fleets, is notable, but not alarming. Supply constraints on several of the best-selling vehicles in the market account for most of the decline. That said, macroeconomic uncertainty, higher fuel prices and persistent affordability challenges present headwinds to new vehicle demand.
Retail sales volume growth with slightly higher transaction prices means that total retail consumer expenditure is projected to rise to $49.4 billion, an increase of $4.2 billion from June 2025,” said King
The Global Outlook – Broken China
Click to enlarge.
“May global light-vehicle sales are estimated to have declined 4.0% year over year to 7.2 million units. As has become a recurring theme in recent months, growth in some markets – notably India and Brazil – was more than offset by losses in China. The selling rate for May was estimated at 89.3 million units, up from 88.6 million units in April,” said David Oakley, manager, Americas vehicle sales forecasts at GlobalData.
“The Chinese market continued to slide in May, with sales falling by 21% year over year, almost matching the year-to-date performance of a 21.5% year over year decline. The slow implementation of the new trade-in subsidy, along with price normalization as the government has stepped in to prevent price wars, has caused sales to slow markedly, even as China increases exports around the world. On the other hand, volumes in India are estimated to have grown by 25.9% year over year in May, as lower taxes and strong consumer sentiment boosted demand. Western Europe also delivered a year over year gain in May, of 2.5%, thanks to accelerating BEV adoption.
“June sales are expected to grow 3.0% from June 2025, to reach 7.9 million units. This would translate to a selling rate of 93.9 million units, up by 0.9% year over year. Although China is likely to see another year over year decline in June, this could be overcome by further growth in India, Japan, North America and Brazil.
“Our forecast for total global sales in 2026 has been revised down to 90.5 million units, compared to an outlook of 91.1 million units a month ago. This forecast would represent a 1.9% year over year decline, as relative weakness in China, along with headwinds from economic and trade factors, drag down the global industry,” said Oakley.
*AutoInformed on
About Ken Zino
Ken Zino, editor and publisher of AutoInformed, is a versatile auto industry participant with global experience spanning decades in print and broadcast journalism, as well as social media. He has automobile testing, marketing, public relations and communications experience. He is past president of The International Motor Press Assn, the Detroit Press Club, founding member and first President of the Automotive Press Assn. He is a member of APA, IMPA and the Midwest Automotive Press Assn. He also brings an historical perspective while citing their contemporary relevance of the work of legendary auto writers such as Ken Purdy, Jim Dunne or Jerry Flint, or writers such as Red Smith, Mark Twain, Thomas Jefferson – all to bring perspective to a chaotic automotive universe. Above all, decades after he first drove a car, Zino still revels in the sound of the exhaust as the throttle is blipped during a downshift and the driver’s rush that occurs when the entry, apex and exit points of a turn are smoothly and swiftly crossed. It’s the beginning of a perfect lap. AutoInformed has an editorial philosophy that loves transportation machines of all kinds while promoting critical thinking about the future use of cars and trucks. Zino builds AutoInformed from his background in automotive journalism starting at Hearst Publishing in New York City on Motor and MotorTech Magazines and car testing where he reviewed hundreds of vehicles in his decade-long stint as the Detroit Bureau Chief of Road & Track magazine. Zino has also worked in Europe, and Asia – now the largest automotive market in the world with China at its center.