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- June 2026 Light Vehicle Production Forecast So-So
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Tag Archives: David Oakley
February 2026 U.S. Vehicle Sales Forecast is Down Again
“The February sales pace shows a modest improvement over January, but will be down from a year ago, with retail sales projected to decline 4.6%. As in January, performance is being shaped by depressed electric vehicle (EV) retail demand. EVs are expected to account for just 6.6% of retail sales, down 1.8 percentage points from a year ago, while elevated transaction prices continue to weigh on volumes through ongoing affordability pressure,” said Thomas King, president of OEM solutions at JD Power. Continue reading
Posted in auto news, economy, manufacturing, marketing, news, news analysis, sales
Tagged Affordability pressure, auto industry commentary, AutoInformed news, autoinformed.com, automotive blog, Automotive news and analysis, David Oakley, J.D. Power and GlobalData, Ken Zino of AutoInformed, Ken Zino of AutoInformed.com writing as AutoCrat, retail transaction prices, Thomas King, Trump slump, Tyson Jominy, U.S. Vehicle Sales and SAAR Forecasts Feb. 2026, vehicle sales in China, X @KenAutoinformed
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January 2026 U.S. Auto Sales Forecast Down
“January is historically the lowest volume sales month of the year and is also historically the least indicative of full-year sales performance. Nevertheless, January opens 2026 with a modest performance with retail sales expected to increase by 1317 units compared to a year ago,” said Thomas King, president of OEM solutions at J.D. Power. Continue reading
Posted in auto news, economy, electric vehicles, environment, global warming, manufacturing, marketing, news analysis, results, sales
Tagged auto industry commentary, AutoInformed news, autoinformed.com, automotive blog, Automotive news and analysis, David Oakley, GlobalData, j.d power, J.D. Power and GlobalData, January 2026 U.S. Auto Sales, Ken Zino of AutoInformed, Ken Zino of AutoInformed.com writing as AutoCrat, Thomas King, Tyson Jominy, X @KenAutoinformed
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December U.S. Vehicle Sales Forecast Down. Global Sales Up
U.S. new-vehicle sales for December 2025, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach 1,454,000, a 7.5% decrease year over year, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData released today. December 2025 has 26 selling days, one more than December 2024. Comparing the same sales volume without adjusting for the number of selling days shows a decrease of 3.8% from 2024. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total U.S. new-vehicle sales is forecast at 15.9 million units, down 1.1 million units from December 2024 as the Trump slump continues.
“December caps a year marked by volatility, as the industry continues to deal with the consequences of import tariffs and changes to electric vehicle legislation. To say it’s been a sales roller coaster of a year would be an understatement,” said Thomas King, president of OEM solutions at J.D. Power. “Fears of future tariff-related price hikes caused sales to jump by 173,000 vehicles between March and April, followed by a sales slowdown in subsequent months. Another sales jump occurred between August and September as 304,200 electric vehicle shoppers made purchases before the September 30th expiration of federal EV tax credits, followed by another sales slowdown whose effects are still being felt in December.”
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Posted in auto news, economy, labor issues, manufacturing, news analysis, results, sales, Trump Truth Tests
Tagged auto industry commentary, AutoInformed news, autoinformed.com, automotive blog, Automotive news and analysis, David Oakley, J.D. Power and GlobalData, Ken Zino of AutoInformed, Ken Zino of AutoInformed.com writing as AutoCrat, Thomas King, Trump slump, X @KenAutoinformed
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November U.S. and Global New Vehicle Sales Forecast Down
Total new-vehicle sales for November 2025, including retail and non-retail transactions, are estimated to reach 1,255,900, a 5.2% decrease year over year, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData released today. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 15.4 million units, down 1.2 million units from November 2024. Global November sales are expected to decrease 3.9% from November 2024. The global selling rate is expected to reach 92.7 million units in November, down from a rate of 95.8 million units in November 2024.
“November’s results reflect another notable—yet anticipated—decline in the [U.S.] new-vehicle sales pace, driven largely by the pull-ahead of electric vehicle (EV) purchases prior to the expiration of federal EV tax credits on Sept. 30. That expiration prompted many shoppers to accelerate buying decisions, resulting in a surge in EV sales that temporarily inflated the overall industry sales pace. Now, two months after the credit expired, the industry continues to feel the effect of those accelerated purchases. In November, EVs are expected to account for just 6.0% of new-vehicle retail sales, consistent with October but well below the 12.9% recorded in September,” said Thomas King, president of OEM solutions at J.D. Power. Continue reading
Posted in auto news, economy, manufacturing, marketing, news analysis, results, sales
Tagged auto industry commentary, AutoInformed news, autoinformed.com, automotive blog, Automotive news and analysis, David Oakley, EV tax credits, global trade, J.D. Power and GlobalData, J.D. Power November 2025 sales forecast, Ken Zino of AutoInformed, Ken Zino of AutoInformed.com writing as AutoCrat, new-vehicle retail transaction prices, tariff dynamics, Thomas King, X @KenAutoinformed
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October U.S. Vehicle Sales Forecast Flat. Global Sales Up
Total new-vehicle sales for October 2025, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach 1,249,800, a 6.9% decrease year-over-year, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power* and GlobalData.** October 2025 has 27 selling days, the same as October 2024. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is forecast to be 15.1 million units, down 1.1 million units from October 2024.
“October’s results reflect a notable, but expected decline in the new-vehicle sales pace, due almost entirely to sales of electric vehicles. “The expiration of federal EV credits on Sept. 30 caused EV shoppers to pull ahead their purchases, driving a significant increase in EV sales and inflating the overall industry sales pace,” said Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power. Continue reading
Posted in auto news, economy, manufacturing, marketing, news analysis, prices, results, sales
Tagged auto industry commentary, AutoInformed news, autoinformed.com, automotive blog, Automotive news and analysis, David Oakley, EV market correction, GlobalData, j.d power, Ken Zino of AutoInformed, Ken Zino of AutoInformed.com writing as AutoCrat, October U.S. Vehicle Sales Forecast, September global light-vehicle sales, Thomas King, Tyson Jominy, u.S. Ocotber 2025 Vehicle Sales forecast, U.S. Vehicle Sales Forecast October 2025, X @KenAutoinformed
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July Record – $49.8B Spent New Vehicles in U.S.
Total U.S. new-vehicle sales for July 2025, including retail and non-retail transactions, are forecast to reach 1,380,500, a 3.2% increase from July 2024 according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData. Comparing the same sales volume without adjusting for the number of selling days translates to an increase of 7.4% from 2024. Nonetheless, consumer spending set record for month with $49.8 billion spent on new vehicles if the forecast holds, which is likely given the track record of the source.
“July retail sales are projected to finish 4.1% higher than a year ago but interpreting that gain requires care due to events both last year and this year that disrupted normal monthly sales patterns,” said Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power. Continue reading
Trump Tariff Legacy – U.S. June Auto Sales Soft
Total U.S. new-vehicle sales during June 2025, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach 1,247,900, a slight 2.5% increase from June 2024 according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData released today.* June 2025 has 24 selling days, two fewer than June 2024. Comparing the same sales volume without adjusting for the number of selling days translates to a decrease of 5.4% from 2024.The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 15.0 million units, up 0.2 million units from June 2024. Continue reading
Posted in auto news, economy, manufacturing, marketing, news analysis, results, sales, Trump Truth Tests
Tagged auto industry commentary, autoinformed.com, automotive blog, Automotive news and analysis, David Oakley, GlobalData, j.d power, J.D. Power and GlobalData forecasts, Ken Zino, Thomas King, X @KenAutoinformed
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US Light Vehicle Sales Strong in November
Light Vehicle sales in the US grew by 11.8% year-on-year (YoY) in November, to 1.37 million units, according to data released by the respected GlobalData consultancy. November had one more selling day compared to November 2023. However, it was the strongest sales result since May of 2021 as the Biden Administration job-creating recovery continues. Continue reading
Posted in news analysis
Tagged Americas Sales Forecasts from GlobalData, auto industry commentary, autoinformed.com, automotive blog, Automotive news and analysis, Biden Administration economic recovery, David Oakley, GlobalData, Ken Zino, November US Light Vehicle Sales, X @KenAutoinformed
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October 2024 US Light Vehicle Sales Up at 1.34 Million
Light Vehicle (LV) sales grew by 11.5% year-on-year (YoY) in October 2024, to 1.34 million units. Although the month had two additional selling days than it did in 2023, sales still exceeded expectations and provided a more cheerful perspective on the industry than has generally been the case in recent months, according to preliminary estimates released today by the respected GlobalData consultancy.
“Sales have generally disappointed for much of 2024, but October provided a pleasant change of pace. While the fundamentals of the market have probably not shifted to a great extent, some consumers appear to have been enticed by the gradual uptick in incentives, allied with greater vehicle availability and an easing in interest rates. A number of brands highlighted how Electric and Hybrid Vehicles performed better,” said David Oakley, Manager, Americas Sales Forecasts, GlobalData. Continue reading
Posted in auto news, economy, manufacturing, marketing, news analysis, sales
Tagged auto industry commentary, autoinformed.com, automotive blog, Automotive news and analysis, Biden Administration economic recovery, David Oakley, GlobalData, Jeff Schuster, Ken Zino, X @KenAutoinformed
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U.S. Vehicles Sales Drop as Consumers Wait for Discounts
“September sales were in line with our forecast, although our expectations were modest for what was always penciled in to be a quieter month. Even though the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points – above the expectations of many analysts – it is likely to take some time for lower borrowing costs to feed through to the auto industry. Generally, high vehicle pricing is keeping monthly payments elevated, and therefore some consumers are still sitting on the sidelines,” said David Oakley, Manager, Americas Sales Forecasts at GlobalData. Continue reading
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales in August 2024 Disappoint
U.S. light vehicle sales totaled 1.42 million in August, the GlobalData* consultancy said today. The annualized selling rate for the month was 15.1 million a year, down from 16.0 million a year in July. The daily selling rate was estimated at 50,600 units per day in August, down from 51,400 in July. Expectations were high coming into the month, given the inclusion of Labor Day in August for the first time since 2019.** Continue reading
CDK Cyberattacks Wound June US Light Vehicle Sales
“Although the industry has become accustomed to dealing with adversity in recent years, the CDK cyberattack was another curve ball that disrupted activity on a number of levels during June. Many dealers that use CDK’s software found it difficult to conduct normal business operations, although reports suggest that workarounds were found in many cases,” said David Oakley, Manager, Americas Sales Forecasts, GlobalData. Continue reading
US Light Vehicle Sales Strong in May
“May is usually an important month for the automotive industry, with warmer temperatures and Memorial Day sales events traditionally bringing consumers out to buy vehicles. This year was no different, with incentives being significantly higher than a year ago, allowing for some buyers to make deals that were not possible when inventory levels were low,” said David Oakley, Manager, Americas Sales Forecasts, GlobalData. Continue reading
April 2024 US Vehicle Sales Drop Slightly
“Calendar effects meant that it was always going to be challenging to match last year’s sales in April. However, with replenished inventory levels helping the market to recover a year ago, the industry is now facing a higher bar in order to keep growing,” said David Oakley, Manager, Americas Sales Forecasts, GlobalData. Continue reading
June 2026 U.S. Auto Sales Forecast Up 3.6%
“The average interest rate on new-vehicle loans is expected to fall 0.35 percentage points to 6.66%, the lowest June reading since 2022. However, the average transaction price of a new vehicle has increased to $46,387, an increase of 0.8% from a year ago, while average monthly finance payments have climbed 3.4% to $813, the highest ever for the month of June. A key driver of the higher monthly payment, despite longer loan terms, is lower trade-in equity. Many of the buyers returning to showrooms today purchased when prices were at their peak several years ago when inventory was scarce. This is manifesting itself as more buyers carrying negative equity on their trade-in. A total of 29.5% of trade-ins had negative equity in June, up 1.4 percentage points from a year ago.
“Manufacturers are leaning harder on discounts to keep buyers in the market. Average incentive spending per vehicle is trending towards $3,217, a 12.7% increase from a year ago. Part of that jump reflects tariff dynamics last year, since several OEMs made nonseasonal pullbacks in incentive spending last June as they cut discounts precautionary to offset tariff costs,” said King. Continue reading →