Without massive taxpayer subsidies, which may not be economically possible, depending on your political bias and social class, electric vehicles are clearly not cost competitive for years to come.
The number of dedicated electric vehicles sold annually will increase from 150,000 in 2013 to 2.36 million in 2020, according to a new decidedly optimistic forecast. This means a compounded annual growth rate of 48%.
Not surprisingly, the Asia-Pacific region is predicted to have the largest gains because of ongoing pollution problems in its many filthy mega cities.
This latest soothsaying from ABI Research flies in the face of the trend actual EV sales thus far, which have been weak because of image, price, performance and recharging problems.
“With many carmakers recently dropping prices and offering more choice and improved performance, full electric vehicles are on the verge of leaving their eco niche of environmentally aware and socially responsible buyers,” claims Dominique Bonte of ABI Research.
However, Bonte acknowledges that the role of governments in subsidizing EVs is critical. Right now, AutoInformed notes that welfare for the rich exists in tax rebates and other handouts, the forcing of public charging infrastructures and exempting EVs from tolls in congestion zones or allowing EVs into High Occupancy lanes, as well as free parking are the norm of a thus far docile electorate. Regulations calling for stringent emission standards globally for the balance of this decade are also a factor, but buyers have yet to face the costs that will be added to a new vehicle as a result, and the political backlash possible is as yet unknown.
ABI Research’s new “Full Electric Vehicles” study look at electrification market trends, EV technologies including crowd and cloud charging, the players and EVs on the market, and forecasts shipments, revenues and the public charging infrastructure. The study is part of the Intelligent Transportation Systems Research Service.
