The prognosticators are saying that U.S. light vehicle sales are looking to come in at a 5-6% increase when compared to April of 2014. About 1,464,000 new cars and trucks will be sold for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (aka SAAR) of 16.7 million. These projected sales from Edmunds would be a 5.1% decrease from March 2015. TrueCar has April at a SAAR of 16.8 million new units, the highest level for the month in a decade.
“It is very common for April sales to be slower than March, which typically gets a boost from certain (Japanese) automakers who offer great deals to motivate shoppers as the companies close their fiscal year,” says Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. “In fact, we often think of April as ‘the calm before the summer storm.’ It won’t be long before the summer sell down of the outgoing model year vehicles, which always draws lots of foot traffic through dealerships.”
“Underpinning this solid outlook is an incredible appetite for crossovers, sport utilities and pickup trucks,” said Eric Lyman, vice president of industry insights for TrueCar. “Automakers with strong light truck offerings continue to gain and will benefit from the likelihood gasoline prices will remain low this summer.”
In April 2005, the last time sales for the month were close to this April’s projected range, light-trucks, including crossovers, sport-utility vehicles and pickups, made up 52% of the market, while cars accounted for 48%. Light-trucks have since increased to about 56% of the new light vehicle market.
TrueCar this month raised its 2015 new vehicle sales forecast to 17.1 million units from 17.0 million units following a stronger than expected first quarter.
Fuji Heavy Industries Subaru brand looks to be the biggest winner in April, followed by FCA (formerly Fiat Chrysler), with sales increases of 23.5% and 10.6% respectively. If accurate, this extends FCA’s consecutive streak of monthly year-over-year of sales gains to 61.
Incentive spending by automakers averaged $2,601 per vehicle in April, up 0.6% from a year ago, but down 4.4 % compared to March 2015.
Edmunds estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 13.5 million vehicles in April, with fleet transactions accounting for 18.8% of total sales. An estimated 3.2 million used cars will be sold in April, for a SAAR of 36.7 million compared to 3.5 million – or a SAAR of 36.1 million – used car sales in March.
