Click to Enlarge.
An unintended but not surprising effect of the COVID-19 plague see the use of mass transit plummeting as driving use remains resilient, consultancy LMC reports this morning,
“As US states and European countries come out of lockdown, a pronounced preference for driving is emerging,” LMC says. “Travelers are avoiding public transport because of capacity and reliability issues, and to avoid the risk of infection. This pattern is evident in nearly all countries — even those that have almost completely suppressed the virus — and across different data sources.”
Global Light Vehicle Production Pre-COVID-19 – Courtesy LMC Automotive.
The -24,000,000 vehicle drop in annualized global production – from ~94m to 70m – begs the question: Is this trend durable – good news for automakers, bad for mass transit promoters – or just a passing anomaly?
LMC notes that OEM assembly plant downtime, due to lock-downs during the pandemic, vary significantly, with China averaging only a three-week shutdown period, with “sustained improvement now showing. China is expected to return to pre-pandemic volumes before the end of 2020.”
Asian vehicle plants were shut on average of four and a half weeks. Overall output going forward will be squeezed more from lower export demand than domestic demand.
Perhaps more important for the US economy, especially for the gravely wounded and debt encumbered Detroit Three, re-openings in Europe and North America are crucial along with unknown levels of consumer demand. Both markets were down for almost seven weeks.
Europe might have more plant stoppages, due to slow demand, but North American build may not be able to meet demand in the US, LMC says. South America, with only 60% of the plants open at extremely low daily output and with COVID cases in Brazil still rising significantly, the shutdowns likely will linger on, adding to the risk in the region.
About Ken Zino
Ken Zino, editor and publisher of AutoInformed, is a versatile auto industry participant with global experience spanning decades in print and broadcast journalism, as well as social media. He has automobile testing, marketing, public relations and communications experience. He is past president of The International Motor Press Assn, the Detroit Press Club, founding member and first President of the Automotive Press Assn. He is a member of APA, IMPA and the Midwest Automotive Press Assn.
He also brings an historical perspective while citing their contemporary relevance of the work of legendary auto writers such as Ken Purdy, Jim Dunne or Jerry Flint, or writers such as Red Smith, Mark Twain, Thomas Jefferson – all to bring perspective to a chaotic automotive universe.
Above all, decades after he first drove a car, Zino still revels in the sound of the exhaust as the throttle is blipped during a downshift and the driver’s rush that occurs when the entry, apex and exit points of a turn are smoothly and swiftly crossed. It’s the beginning of a perfect lap.
AutoInformed has an editorial philosophy that loves transportation machines of all kinds while promoting critical thinking about the future use of cars and trucks.
Zino builds AutoInformed from his background in automotive journalism starting at Hearst Publishing in New York City on Motor and MotorTech Magazines and car testing where he reviewed hundreds of vehicles in his decade-long stint as the Detroit Bureau Chief of Road & Track magazine. Zino has also worked in Europe, and Asia – now the largest automotive market in the world with China at its center.
COVID-19 Ups Auto Use, Mass Transit Drops
Click to Enlarge.
An unintended but not surprising effect of the COVID-19 plague see the use of mass transit plummeting as driving use remains resilient, consultancy LMC reports this morning,
“As US states and European countries come out of lockdown, a pronounced preference for driving is emerging,” LMC says. “Travelers are avoiding public transport because of capacity and reliability issues, and to avoid the risk of infection. This pattern is evident in nearly all countries — even those that have almost completely suppressed the virus — and across different data sources.”
Global Light Vehicle Production Pre-COVID-19 – Courtesy LMC Automotive.
The -24,000,000 vehicle drop in annualized global production – from ~94m to 70m – begs the question: Is this trend durable – good news for automakers, bad for mass transit promoters – or just a passing anomaly?
LMC notes that OEM assembly plant downtime, due to lock-downs during the pandemic, vary significantly, with China averaging only a three-week shutdown period, with “sustained improvement now showing. China is expected to return to pre-pandemic volumes before the end of 2020.”
Asian vehicle plants were shut on average of four and a half weeks. Overall output going forward will be squeezed more from lower export demand than domestic demand.
Perhaps more important for the US economy, especially for the gravely wounded and debt encumbered Detroit Three, re-openings in Europe and North America are crucial along with unknown levels of consumer demand. Both markets were down for almost seven weeks.
Europe might have more plant stoppages, due to slow demand, but North American build may not be able to meet demand in the US, LMC says. South America, with only 60% of the plants open at extremely low daily output and with COVID cases in Brazil still rising significantly, the shutdowns likely will linger on, adding to the risk in the region.
About Ken Zino
Ken Zino, editor and publisher of AutoInformed, is a versatile auto industry participant with global experience spanning decades in print and broadcast journalism, as well as social media. He has automobile testing, marketing, public relations and communications experience. He is past president of The International Motor Press Assn, the Detroit Press Club, founding member and first President of the Automotive Press Assn. He is a member of APA, IMPA and the Midwest Automotive Press Assn. He also brings an historical perspective while citing their contemporary relevance of the work of legendary auto writers such as Ken Purdy, Jim Dunne or Jerry Flint, or writers such as Red Smith, Mark Twain, Thomas Jefferson – all to bring perspective to a chaotic automotive universe. Above all, decades after he first drove a car, Zino still revels in the sound of the exhaust as the throttle is blipped during a downshift and the driver’s rush that occurs when the entry, apex and exit points of a turn are smoothly and swiftly crossed. It’s the beginning of a perfect lap. AutoInformed has an editorial philosophy that loves transportation machines of all kinds while promoting critical thinking about the future use of cars and trucks. Zino builds AutoInformed from his background in automotive journalism starting at Hearst Publishing in New York City on Motor and MotorTech Magazines and car testing where he reviewed hundreds of vehicles in his decade-long stint as the Detroit Bureau Chief of Road & Track magazine. Zino has also worked in Europe, and Asia – now the largest automotive market in the world with China at its center.