The agonizingly slow recover in the U.S. economy continues in spite of Washington woes.
December U.S. new vehicle sales are forecast to continue the gains made during 2012, resulting in the best year for retail auto sales since 2007 before the Great Recession strangled the economy the next year. December sales are expected to come in at 1,152,500 units, which means a seasonally adjusted annualized rate – or SAAR – of 12.2 million units. Total sales are likely to be 14.5 million.
While still well below the annual rates of 16 to 17 million cars and light trucks during the pre-2008 years of the last decade, December’s SAAR is 500,000 vehicles higher than predicted for the 2012 full-year pace. Buyers are apparently ignoring the dire media predictions and the political posturing from that tawdry cast of cliff dwelling and big-money-bought politicians inhabiting the banks of the Potomac river while living in their taxpayer-funded socialist paradise.
In the real world inhabited by people who actually do productive work and buy things with their own money, light-vehicle sales in December 2012 will likely increase 14% from December 2011. Total auto industry volume is forecast at 1,358,600 units because of their purchases. Fleet mix is expected to reach 15%, the sixth consecutive month below 20%, as automakers are being more prudent, or at least less profligate, in their marketing practices.
Based on strong sales in November and early December, LMC Automotive, the source of the raw sales data used here, is increasing its 2012 forecast for total light-vehicle sales in the United States to 14.5 million units, up slightly from 14.4 million. LMC is also maintaining its 2012 forecast for retail sales at 11.7 million units. The outlook for 2013 remains 15 million units for total light-vehicle and 12.2 million for retail sales. This, sadly, represents a much slower growth rate of 4% when compared to 2012, which is tracking at +14% year-over-year.
“The U.S. light-vehicle sales market continues to be a bright spot in the tremulous global environment,” said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at LMC Automotive. “The only major roadblock ahead for the U.S. market is the fiscal cliff. Assuming that hurdle is cleared, 2013 is one step closer to a stable and sustainable growth rate for autos, with volume above the 15 million unit mark.”
Speaker Boehner’s failure last night should be seen as one thing: A reset button to listen to the will of the American people. The slate is clean and we call on the President to come forward with an offer that reflects the reasons he won the election. Across the country working people continue to demand no tax cuts for the richest 2% and no benefit cuts to Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security.. At this point, cuts to the Social Security COLA to pay for more tax cuts for the wealthiest 2% should be off the table. The President and Congress have no obligation to radical Republicans who have no ground to stand on. What they do have is the backing of millions of hardworking women and men tired of being held hostage by far right-wing Republicans who clearly have little interest in governing. (The writer is head of the AFL-CIO – editor)