“For May, S&P Global Mobility has shifted to an oil price scenario that assumes a more sustained impact through 2027, increasing pressure on vehicle demand, production costs, and supply chains. There is some early evidence that automakers are pulling forward select production as a hedge against potential feedstock and parts shortages, though existing inventories and limited alternative supply sources are helping cushion the immediate effect,” said Mike Wall, Executive Director, Automotive Analysis, S&P Global Mobility. “At the same time, region-specific challenges, especially weaker near-term demand in mainland China, are contributing to broader downward revisions across the short-term forecast horizon. The most meaningful cuts this month are concentrated in Greater China, Japan/Korea, and South Asia,” said Wall.

“North America’s vehicle production outlook was reduced by 13,000 units for 2026 and 339,000 units for 2027. Near-term production remains relatively steady as automakers continue building key high-volume vehicles to meet demand and support lean inventory levels, especially in pickups and core utility segments. However, the forecast assumes manufacturers will not cut output preemptively unless demand weakness or supply disruptions become more visible. As a result, the brunt of the downside risk shifts into 2027, especially for vehicles and segments more exposed to high fuel costs and softer consumer spending,” said Wall. [Such as the gas guzzling pickup trucks and SUVs that are (were?) extremely profitable offerings from what used to called the Detroit Three. Now GM, Ford and Stellantis – AutoCrat.]