Look at a Center for Automotive Research (CAR) analysis published today of U.S. Census trade data by NAICS, domestic exports by value. In it Edgar Faler, Principal Mobility Analyst and Strategy Lead, and
Tyler Harp, Industry Economist at CAR note that:

“The automotive industry is a prime example of the integration between the U.S. and Canadian economies. Canada remains the largest U.S. export market for the automobile and light duty vehicle, heavy duty truck, and motor vehicle parts industries. During the first half of 2026, Canada accounted for:

• 45% of U.S. automobile and light duty motor vehicle manufacturing exports
• 79% of U.S. heavy duty truck manufacturing exports
• 39% of U.S. motor vehicle parts manufacturing exports

“The integration goes well beyond finished vehicle trade. In 2025, the U.S. exported approximately $30 billion in auto parts to Canada and imported around $20 billion in Canadian auto parts – resulting in a roughly $10 billion U.S. motor vehicle parts trade surplus.

“Those U.S. parts are also reflected in Canadian vehicle production. In 2024, more than 53% of the value of Canadian light vehicle exports originated in the United States. By comparison, overseas produced vehicles sold in the U.S. contain very little U.S. content: 95% of overseas assembled carlines imported into the U.S. contain 5% or less U.S. content for the 2026 model year. [Sources: CAR analysis of USITC DataWeb, USITA Motor Vehicle Parts HTS 10-digit; Statistics Canada; CAR analysis of MY2026 American Automobile Labeling Act data.]

Key Data Points

“A tariff on a Canadian built vehicle does not simply affect Canadian production. It also affects substantial U.S. content embedded in that vehicle and the U.S. suppliers, workers, and production supporting it. Tariffs on Canadian vehicles therefore have significantly greater implications for U.S. industry than tariffs on vehicles imported from overseas.

A 50% Tariff Creates Significant Supply Chain Risk

“Automotive production depends on tightly synchronized cross border supply chains that cannot adjust quickly. Whether immediate or delayed (until 2027, as proposed), a 50% tariff creates significant risk of supply chain disruption in both countries. Delayed implementation can create additional disruption as companies adjust inventory and production ahead of the tariff, potentially resulting in stockpiling, parts shortages, and higher costs.

“Furthermore, the potential disruption extends beyond vehicles. Canada is the largest foreign source of steel for the United States and, during the first half of 2026, was the second largest source of U.S. heavy duty truck and motor vehicle parts imports by value, behind Mexico. Disruption to these trade flows could therefore affect U.S. manufacturing and supply chains more broadly, not just Canadian exporters,” the CAR analysis said.