North American light-vehicle production in Q1 of 2013 is up just 1%, compared with 2012.
The U.S. new vehicle April sales forecast is flat at 12.1 million units. This is the third month this year above 12 million, though, with retail sales of 1,029,000 million projected.
This is not the strong recovery in auto sales that some were hoping for, as the economy remains sluggish, but it still represents an increase in consumer spending that appears stronger than the underlying economy. Widely available credit is helping the recovery.
Total light-vehicle sales in April 2013 are projected at 1,312,100 units, a 7% increase from April 2012. The selling rate is expected to remain above 15 million units for the sixth consecutive month. The forecast for fleet sales is 282,000 units, which is stronger than in April 2012, representing a 22% share of total sales. The numbers are based on the first eleven selling days of the month.
According to J.D. Power and Associates, the source of the soothsaying, prices are increasing as sales recover. Comparing year-to-date for 2013 with the same period last year, consumer- transaction prices are up 3.1%, which equates to an extra $13.2 billion spent on new vehicles through the first 4 months of the year ($113 billion in total). The average price of used vehicles sold at franchised dealerships has also risen 3.8% in 2013 from 2012 year-to-date.
“Industry sales are also benefiting from an increase in the number of maturing vehicle leases, a trend that will continue throughout 2013,” according to John Humphrey of Power. The consultancy forecasts that overall lease maturities will rise by 447,000 leases (+35%) to 1.73 million maturities for the full year of 2013 compared with 2012.
The outlook for vehicle sales in 2013 continues to improve. LMC Automotive is raising its 2013 U.S. forecast for total light-vehicle sales to 15.4 million units from 15.3 million units. The retail light-vehicle forecast continues to round to 12.5 million units, although the majority of the increase in the forecast is on the retail side of the market.
Vehicle inventory levels in early April are at a 60-day supply, compared with 64 days in March 2013. Overall, there are nearly 3.2 million units currently in inventory, as the market heads into the peak spring/summer selling months. Car inventory began the month with a 56-day supply (previously 61 days) and trucks with a 64-day supply from 68 days.
North American light-vehicle production in Q1 of 2013 is up just 1%, compared with the same period in 2012. Year-over-year production in the United States leads the region, with a 3% increase on strong gains from Ford, Nissan and Volkswagen. Production volume in Mexico is up 2%. Canadian production in the first quarter is down by 9%, as all automakers, with the exception of Ford, had lower production volume in the first quarter of 2013 than in 2012. LMC Automotive’s forecast for North American production is unchanged at 15.9 million units for 2013, an increase of just 3% from 2012.
