The U.S. auto sales outlook for 2013 continues to improve even with a stalled economy.
Retail sales of new vehicles in the U.S. during February are forecast to increase from February 2012, as the tentative recovery of the damaged and still vulnerable U.S. economy continues. However, sales at 931,000 cars and light trucks or a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 12.1 million units will dip below an unexpectedly strong January SAAR of 13.1 million, a normally slow selling month. U.S. vehicle sales in January were surprisingly strong, with no automaker stronger than Toyota Motor’s three brands, which increased sales almost 27% in a retail light-vehicle market that grew by 14% to more than 1 million units. (Read AutoInformed on Toyota Led all Makers in U.S. Sales Gains During January of 2013 and Ford Motor January Sales up 22%, Best since 2006)
Retail transactions are the most accurate measurement of true underlying consumer demand for new vehicles since subsidized or heavily discounted fleet sales are not included. If you add in projected fleet sales, then total light-vehicle sales in February 2013 could reach 1,176,200 units, up 7% from February 2012. This would be the fourth consecutive month with the selling rate at or above 15.2 million units. Fleet share is expected to remain at the January level of 21%.
“All signs of the industry’s health are positive right now,” said John Humphrey, senior vice president of the global automotive practice at J.D. Power and Associates, the source of the forecast “Average transaction prices are up, incentives are stable, leasing is at a healthy level and newly redesigned models continue to make an impact on the marketplace.”
| U.S. Sales | Feb 2013 | Jan 2013 | Feb 2012 |
| New Retail | 931,100 (+9% Feb 12) | 822,018 | 887,924 |
| Total Sales | 1,176,200 (+7% Feb 12) | 1,041,982 | 1,147,761 |
| Retail SAAR | 12.1 m | 13.1 m | 11.7 m |
| Total SAAR | 15.2 m | 15.2 m | 14.4 m |
The outlook for 2013 continues to improve. In fact, LMC Automotive is increasing its 2013 U.S. forecast for total light-vehicle sales to 15.3 million units from 15.1 million units. The increase is split between fleet and retail light-vehicle sales, with the outlook for retail increasing to 12.5 million units from 12.4 million units. More new-model launches this year (+50%) combined with an increase in lease maturities should keep light-vehicle sales climbing throughout the year.
North American Production
North American light-vehicle production in January 2013 finished at more than 1.3 million units, 7% higher than in January 2012. Production in Mexico has increased by nearly 21% from January 2012. General Motors, Ford, and Volkswagen increased volumes because of newer launches. U.S. vehicle production has grown 9% from January 2012, while Canadian production has declined by 13% during the same period.
Vehicle inventory levels in early February increased to a 74-day supply, compared with 59 days in January. A higher level is typical in February, though. However, at the current selling rate, inventory levels are expected to re-balance within the next month or two. Overall, there are nearly 3.1 million new cars and light trucks currently available on dealer lots or in transit—an increase of approximately 600,000 units from February 2012.
LMC Automotive’s forecast for North American production remains at 15.9 million units for this year, a 3% increase from 2012.
