Pro Consumer Milestones: California Mandates 100% Zero Emissions Vehicles by 2035. More States Certain to Follow

The California Air Resources Board today approved the Advanced Clean Cars II rule that sets California as the first US state to embrace a path to require zero-emission vehicles with concurrent massive reductions in climate-warming pollution.

The rule establishes a year-by-year roadmap so that by 2035 100% of new cars and light trucks sold in California will be zero-emission vehicles, including plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. This is a huge gain for clean air  as well as the climate benefits the regulation delivers in the nation’s largest vehicle market. CARB’s analysis says that battery-electric vehicles are likely to reach cost parity with conventional vehicles by 2030.

The CARB regulation codifies the light-duty vehicle goals set out in Governor Newsom’s Executive Order N-79-20. Transportation is responsible for ~50% of greenhouse gas emissions (when accounting for fuel production emissions) and 80% of air pollutants in California. States that now follow California’s vehicle rules are expected to adopt these regulations through their rulemakings. These states constitute ~40% of the nation’s new car sales.*

Ken Zino of AutoInformed.com on Pro Consumer Milestones: California Mandates 100% Zero Emissions Vehicles by 2035

Breathing easier?

While many progressive states and nations have set targets and goals to phase out the sale of internal combustion cars, CARB correctly stated that California’s is the “most aggressive regulation to establish a definitive mechanism to meet required zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) sales that ramp up year over year, culminating in 100% ZEV sales in 2035.” **

“The timeline is ambitious but achievable: by the time a child born this year is ready to enter middle school, only zero-emission vehicles or a limited number of plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) will be offered for sale new in California. The regulation also includes provisions that enhance equity in the transition to zero-emission vehicles and provides consumers certainty about the long-term emission benefits, quality, and durability of these clean cars and trucks and the batteries they run on,” CARB said.

“Rapidly accelerating the number of ZEVs on our roads and highways will deliver substantial emission and pollution reductions to all Californians, especially for those who live near roadways and suffer from persistent air pollution,” said CARB Chair Liane Randolph. “The regulation includes ground-breaking strategies to bring ZEVs to more communities and is supported by the Governor’s ZEV budget which provides incentives to make ZEVs available to the widest number of economic groups in California, including low- and moderate-income consumers.”

CARB’s Summary

By 2037, the regulation delivers a 25% reduction in smog-causing pollution from light-duty vehicles to meet federal air quality standards. This benefits all Californians but especially the state’s most environmentally and economically burdened communities along freeways and other heavily traveled thoroughfares. From 2026 through 2040 the regulation will result in cumulative avoided health impacts worth nearly $13 billion including 1,290 fewer cardiopulmonary deaths, 460 fewer hospital admissions for cardiovascular or respiratory illness, and 650 fewer emergency room visits for asthma.

The regulation delivers multiple benefits that grow year by year. By 2030, there will be 2.9 million fewer new gas-powered vehicles sold, rising to 9.5 million fewer conventional vehicles by 2035. In 2040, greenhouse gas emissions from cars, pickups, and SUVs are cut in half, and from 2026 through 2040 the regulation cuts climate warming pollution from those vehicles a cumulative total of 395 million metric tons. That is equivalent to avoiding the greenhouse gases produced from the combustion of 915 million barrels of petroleum.

General Requirements

The new regulation accelerates requirements that automakers deliver an increasing number of zero-emission light-duty vehicles each year beginning in model year 2026. Sales of new ZEVs and PHEVs will start with 35% that year, build to 68% in 2030, and reach 100% in 2035.

Eligibility and Credits

The regulation applies to automakers (not dealers) and covers only new vehicle sales. It does not impact existing vehicles on the road today, which will still be legal to own and drive.

Plug-in hybrid, full battery-electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles count toward an automaker’s requirement. PHEVs must have an all-electric range of at least 50 miles under real-world driving conditions. In addition, automakers will be allowed to meet no more than 20% of their overall ZEV requirement with PHEVs.

Battery-electric and fuel cell vehicles will need a minimum range of 150 miles to qualify under the program, include fast-charging ability and come equipped with a charging cord to facilitate charging, and meet new warranty and durability requirements.

Enhanced Durability and Warranty Requirements

The new regulation also takes regulatory steps to assure that ZEVs can be full replacements to gasoline vehicles, hold their market value for owners, and that used car buyers are getting a quality vehicle that will not pollute.

By model year 2030, the rules require the vehicle to maintain at least 80% of electric range for 10 years or 150,000 miles. (Phased in from 70% for 2026 through 2029 model year vehicles.) By model year 2031, individual vehicle battery packs are warranted to maintain 75% of their energy for eight years or 100,000 miles. (Phased in from 70% for 2026 through 2030 model years.) ZEV powertrain components are warranted for at least three years or 50,000 miles.

Environmental Justice

The regulation delivers substantial emission reductions to all Californians, with particular benefits to those who live near roadways and suffer from persistent air pollution. The durability and warranty requirements in the regulation will help establish a viable and dependable used ZEV market to ensure the emission benefits are permanent, and the regulation includes an approach that provides credits to automakers for certain actions that increase access to ZEVs by low-income households and people living in disadvantaged communities.

Increasing Access to Zero-Emission Vehicles for all Californians

Governor Newsom proposed, and the Legislature has approved, $2.7 billion in fiscal year 2022-23, and $3.9 billion over three years, for investment in ZEV adoption, as well as clean mobility options for California’s most environmentally and economically burdened communities. These programs support the new regulation by increasing access to ZEVs for all Californians, including moderate- and low-income consumers. They include:

The Governor’s ZEV budget includes $400 million over three years for the statewide expansion of Clean Cars 4 All and for a suite of clean transportation equity projects. The budget also includes $525 million for the Clean Vehicles Rebate Project (CVRP). In addition, there is $300 million for more charging infrastructure, especially for those consumers who may not have a garage where they can charge their EV.

Consumer Savings

Drivers of full battery-electric vehicles already save money on operation and maintenance compared to cars with internal combustion engines. That’s the result of cheaper fuel – charging at home costs about half as much as gasoline for the same number of miles driven – and battery-electric vehicles can save drivers 40% in maintenance costs.

CARB analysis indicates that battery-electric vehicles are likely to reach cost parity with conventional vehicles by 2030. By 2035, consumers are likely to realize as much as $7,900 in maintenance and operational savings over the first 10 years of ownership. Owners will also see 10-year savings from 2026 model year battery-electric vehicles, though not quite as much.

Stringent Standards for Conventional Cars

As with the original Advanced Clean Cars rules in 2012, ACC II includes updated regulations for light- and medium-duty internal combustion engine vehicles as well, to mitigate the air quality impacts from conventional vehicles. These low-emission vehicle standards help deliver real-world emission benefits that complement more significant emission reductions gained by wider ZEV deployment. This will prevent potential emission backsliding by removing ZEVs from the emissions baseline used to calculate new vehicle fleet-average emissions. The regulation also reduces the allowable exhaust emissions under more real-world driving conditions and emissions caused by evaporation.

* Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Nevada, Oregon, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, and Washington adhere to California’s pre-ban auto emissions levels.

** COP 27: The next U.N. climate talks in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt this November will – discuss among other things – how older, developed countries should help pay for developing countries climate change damages.

 

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