Click for more information.
AutoInformed once again notes, humbly and wryly, that its vision is mostly clear on the significance of long past occurrences. Nonetheless, with each passing year we still pause and attempt to bring insight into events of the time. When we get it right, our perspective observes that we are what we were, but that is only a partial influence amidst the chaos of the American present and our aspirations of becoming a more useful part of our society comprised of “We the People.” This American can-do spirit provides glimpses of optimism through the darkness and shadows that are obscuring a better tomorrow where mobility in all its forms remains key.
With that in mind, here’s our latest takes on the 2022 annum of automobility, from autonomous and electric vehicles needed to foil planet-killing global warming, to driving-caused deaths, to trade, tariffs, allies and, alas, the still ongoing threats from American fascism and racism that are opposing our collective growth. We undertake this with an awareness that AutoInformed conducts its education in public with our deficiencies apparent. We begin our annual taking stock with comments on significant automotive stories of 2022 as we look to endure another year of plagues – covid variants, political insurrections, social unrest and others unknown but still to come.
Even in our politics of spite where both parties despise the other, bipartisanship can still have positive effects on a life-embracing future. This was evident despite the culture wars fought over the Build Back Better legislation (badly named – it should be called Building Forward Together) that aspires to a green future with sustainable transportation. From the 2008 Great Recession to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic catastrophe in 2020, both presided over by the global warming non-believers predominant in Republican Administrations, the US transportation system grew noticeably. However, the supporting infrastructure remained largely built and, worse, stagnant lacking badly needed repairs and investment. Tax cuts for the wealthy increasing government deficits were a factor in this self-sabotage. This needs to stop.
Transportation and transportation-related industries employed 14.9 million people (10.2% of the US labor force) in 2021, up 3.9% from 2020, surpassing the 2019 level of 14.8 million workers. Transportation accounted for 8.4% of the US gross domestic product in 2021, up from 7.7% in 2020, but down from 9.1% in 2019. During 2021, the wholesale and retail trade sector continued to require more transportation services than any other sector to produce one dollar of gross output. However, the impact is far greater because transportation is vital for many – if not most businesses outside of the sector. (Autoinformed.com: US Recovering from Covid. Greenhouse Gasses a Problem)
The failed former president, currently the insurrectionist in chief residing in Flori-duh, not only didn’t actually do anything to repair the infrastructure despite voluminous weekly (weakly?) announcements that it was infrastructure week, but his tax cuts for the rich also ran up record deficits as well.*(see below) Nonetheless, we have now started down the road to a cleaner future, less dependent on corrupt foreign regimes while increasing good paying American jobs.
The new National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) Formula Program established by President Biden’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law will build an electric vehicle charging network. Without question this is an important step towards making electric vehicle (EV) charging accessible to all Americans. The program will provide nearly $5 billion over five years to help states create a network of EV charging stations along designated Alternative Fuel Corridors, particularly along the Interstate Highway System – itself the product of forward thinking by the Eisenhower Administration. There is a history of such innovative and effective big-government Federal support for roads going back to 1916. It’s nice to embrace a sequel. There was also The Inflation Reduction Act. The $369 billion in tax incentives for clean energy is another positive step. (AutoInformed: Washington Diddles. India Puts Billions into Securing EV Jobs; First Wireless EV Charging Road Slated for Michigan; EVs – at $7B GM Makes Largest Announcement in History; Biden Bets on Detroit, Union Workers at GM’s EV Factory ZERO)
The United States makes 12% of the world’s semiconductors, compared with 37% in the 1990s, according to US Commerce Department data.Many US firms are dependent on chips made abroad, and the fragility of those supply chains has caused widespread economic damage to consumers and companies for more than a year. Moreover, McKinsey research estimates that worldwide demand will continue to increase, with semiconductors poised to become a $1 trillion industry by the end of the decade. Roughly 70% of growth is forecast to come from three industries: automotive, computation and data storage, and wireless. So three cheers for the CHIPS and Science Act of last August that directs $280 billion in spending during the next ten years. The majority,$200 billion, is for scientific R&D and commercialization. Some $52.7 billion is for semiconductor manufacturing, R&D, and workforce development, with another $24 billion worth of tax credits for chip production.
Other vital steps to a sustainable future occurred on the left coast during the same week Build Back Better passed in Washington. The California Air Resources Board approved a $1.5 billion investment plan that will increase access to clean vehicles and clean mobility options through a wide variety of projects moving to the transformation of California’s vehicle and equipment fleet to zero-emissions.
The plan is the largest annual investment in clean transportation incentives to date, more than double the amount of the largest past investment. Projects include consumer rebates for clean cars, incentives for cleaner trucks, and so-called mobility options. More than half of the $1.5 billion Fiscal Year 2021-22 Funding Plan for Clean Transportation Incentives is targeted to benefit lower income communities and those disproportionately burdened by environmental pollution.
There was also some movement on industrial policy through the use of anti-trust law. This started more than year ago, but a big result happened this past August when the US Department of Justice stopped a Chinese takeover of shipping containers by State-owned or controlled entities. It’s a rare recent example of the effective use of Industrial Antitrust Policy promoting widespread and long-term consumer and business benefits. As Teddy Roosevelt said – bully. A patrician progressive within the conservative Republican party!
There is also some movement on addressing the semiconductor and other potential vital parts shortages. The urge to increase action will come from the continuing negative effects on vehicle supply and clean technologies from geopolitics (Putin’s War on Ukraine) and ongoing renewed pandemic outbreaks (China) that continue to interfere with our automobility. Recent new-car pricing power from scarcity has lifted automaker profits in the short term. Pent-up demand will still result in strong sales – until it doesn’t, but inventory restraints and disruptions cause continuing operating inefficiencies and resiliency costs that carry forward. This is a needless waste of resources that should be deployed elsewhere.
In our view the solution is a strong national industrial policy that has yet to emerge – even in conversations. National industrial policy is an anathema in DC. We need to rethink this weakness. Yes, automakers are planning and implementing their own transitions. By some estimates the transition, now taking place amid a weakening economic outlook, could cost automakers and suppliers $70 billion or more if not effectively managed. There are several implications for all involved in the automotive value chain here, not all of them benign.
However, the government can play a beneficial role here by providing direction in our, We the People, national interest and supplying certainty as to policy directions. Such rethinking is rare hereabouts, but the clock is, well, TiKToK-ing as we move forward into 2023. We need to cast aside the policy making obstructionists whose sole concern is their own tailor-made well-being. (DOJ Thwarts Chinese Takeover of Shipping Containers; Automaker Profits Post-Covid Hiding Supplier Weakness)
Finally, we come to the promise and the curse of autonomous vehicles. The Department of Transportation’s efforts to increase roadway safety through innovation has encountered bumpy roads this past year when the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration published the initial round of data collected through its Standing General Order of last year. The SGO, issued in June 2021, requires for the first time that manufacturers and operators of vehicles equipped with SAE L2 ADAS or SAE Levels 3-5 ADS report to NHTSA certain crashes when the systems are engaged.
The SGO is a first step toward helping the Department take a more data-derived approach to ensuring that AV technology is deployed safely and will help inform its future actions, including those to educate consumers and build confidence in advanced vehicle technologies. (click here for: Safety Performance of Advanced Vehicle Technologies Murky; SAE Autonomous Driving Levels explained at AutoInformed.)
Automakers have been adding these systems at unprecedented rates recently since they are vital steps necessary on the road to autonomous vehicles. However, there are unexpected dire consequences accompanying the use of these “safety systems.” No argument here that new vehicle technologies have the potential to help prevent crashes, reduce crash severity and save lives. Moreover an aging population needs help with all forms of mobility.
In spite of this, it is much more complex and expensive problem than exponents original depicted. Deployment of autonomous vehicles now appears to be more like in the next decade of this century. (Ford Motor Q3 Earnings to Take $1B Cost Hit; Ford Motor Posts Q3 Net Loss of $827 Million)
One bright spot. “Automated vehicle development is advancing across all transportation modes. There are 39 state-level jurisdictions actively engaged in permitting testing or full deployment of driverless highway vehicles in 2022, more widespread autonomous port systems and ships, and the use of Positive Train Control in railroads,” said The Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) in the Transportation Statistical Annual Report last week.
*Trump Economic Policy Disasters
Significant 2022 Automotive Stories and Trends
Click for more information.
AutoInformed once again notes, humbly and wryly, that its vision is mostly clear on the significance of long past occurrences. Nonetheless, with each passing year we still pause and attempt to bring insight into events of the time. When we get it right, our perspective observes that we are what we were, but that is only a partial influence amidst the chaos of the American present and our aspirations of becoming a more useful part of our society comprised of “We the People.” This American can-do spirit provides glimpses of optimism through the darkness and shadows that are obscuring a better tomorrow where mobility in all its forms remains key.
With that in mind, here’s our latest takes on the 2022 annum of automobility, from autonomous and electric vehicles needed to foil planet-killing global warming, to driving-caused deaths, to trade, tariffs, allies and, alas, the still ongoing threats from American fascism and racism that are opposing our collective growth. We undertake this with an awareness that AutoInformed conducts its education in public with our deficiencies apparent. We begin our annual taking stock with comments on significant automotive stories of 2022 as we look to endure another year of plagues – covid variants, political insurrections, social unrest and others unknown but still to come.
Even in our politics of spite where both parties despise the other, bipartisanship can still have positive effects on a life-embracing future. This was evident despite the culture wars fought over the Build Back Better legislation (badly named – it should be called Building Forward Together) that aspires to a green future with sustainable transportation. From the 2008 Great Recession to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic catastrophe in 2020, both presided over by the global warming non-believers predominant in Republican Administrations, the US transportation system grew noticeably. However, the supporting infrastructure remained largely built and, worse, stagnant lacking badly needed repairs and investment. Tax cuts for the wealthy increasing government deficits were a factor in this self-sabotage. This needs to stop.
Transportation and transportation-related industries employed 14.9 million people (10.2% of the US labor force) in 2021, up 3.9% from 2020, surpassing the 2019 level of 14.8 million workers. Transportation accounted for 8.4% of the US gross domestic product in 2021, up from 7.7% in 2020, but down from 9.1% in 2019. During 2021, the wholesale and retail trade sector continued to require more transportation services than any other sector to produce one dollar of gross output. However, the impact is far greater because transportation is vital for many – if not most businesses outside of the sector. (Autoinformed.com: US Recovering from Covid. Greenhouse Gasses a Problem)
The failed former president, currently the insurrectionist in chief residing in Flori-duh, not only didn’t actually do anything to repair the infrastructure despite voluminous weekly (weakly?) announcements that it was infrastructure week, but his tax cuts for the rich also ran up record deficits as well.*(see below) Nonetheless, we have now started down the road to a cleaner future, less dependent on corrupt foreign regimes while increasing good paying American jobs.
The new National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) Formula Program established by President Biden’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law will build an electric vehicle charging network. Without question this is an important step towards making electric vehicle (EV) charging accessible to all Americans. The program will provide nearly $5 billion over five years to help states create a network of EV charging stations along designated Alternative Fuel Corridors, particularly along the Interstate Highway System – itself the product of forward thinking by the Eisenhower Administration. There is a history of such innovative and effective big-government Federal support for roads going back to 1916. It’s nice to embrace a sequel. There was also The Inflation Reduction Act. The $369 billion in tax incentives for clean energy is another positive step. (AutoInformed: Washington Diddles. India Puts Billions into Securing EV Jobs; First Wireless EV Charging Road Slated for Michigan; EVs – at $7B GM Makes Largest Announcement in History; Biden Bets on Detroit, Union Workers at GM’s EV Factory ZERO)
The United States makes 12% of the world’s semiconductors, compared with 37% in the 1990s, according to US Commerce Department data. Many US firms are dependent on chips made abroad, and the fragility of those supply chains has caused widespread economic damage to consumers and companies for more than a year. Moreover, McKinsey research estimates that worldwide demand will continue to increase, with semiconductors poised to become a $1 trillion industry by the end of the decade. Roughly 70% of growth is forecast to come from three industries: automotive, computation and data storage, and wireless. So three cheers for the CHIPS and Science Act of last August that directs $280 billion in spending during the next ten years. The majority,$200 billion, is for scientific R&D and commercialization. Some $52.7 billion is for semiconductor manufacturing, R&D, and workforce development, with another $24 billion worth of tax credits for chip production.
Other vital steps to a sustainable future occurred on the left coast during the same week Build Back Better passed in Washington. The California Air Resources Board approved a $1.5 billion investment plan that will increase access to clean vehicles and clean mobility options through a wide variety of projects moving to the transformation of California’s vehicle and equipment fleet to zero-emissions.
The plan is the largest annual investment in clean transportation incentives to date, more than double the amount of the largest past investment. Projects include consumer rebates for clean cars, incentives for cleaner trucks, and so-called mobility options. More than half of the $1.5 billion Fiscal Year 2021-22 Funding Plan for Clean Transportation Incentives is targeted to benefit lower income communities and those disproportionately burdened by environmental pollution.
There was also some movement on industrial policy through the use of anti-trust law. This started more than year ago, but a big result happened this past August when the US Department of Justice stopped a Chinese takeover of shipping containers by State-owned or controlled entities. It’s a rare recent example of the effective use of Industrial Antitrust Policy promoting widespread and long-term consumer and business benefits. As Teddy Roosevelt said – bully. A patrician progressive within the conservative Republican party!
There is also some movement on addressing the semiconductor and other potential vital parts shortages. The urge to increase action will come from the continuing negative effects on vehicle supply and clean technologies from geopolitics (Putin’s War on Ukraine) and ongoing renewed pandemic outbreaks (China) that continue to interfere with our automobility. Recent new-car pricing power from scarcity has lifted automaker profits in the short term. Pent-up demand will still result in strong sales – until it doesn’t, but inventory restraints and disruptions cause continuing operating inefficiencies and resiliency costs that carry forward. This is a needless waste of resources that should be deployed elsewhere.
In our view the solution is a strong national industrial policy that has yet to emerge – even in conversations. National industrial policy is an anathema in DC. We need to rethink this weakness. Yes, automakers are planning and implementing their own transitions. By some estimates the transition, now taking place amid a weakening economic outlook, could cost automakers and suppliers $70 billion or more if not effectively managed. There are several implications for all involved in the automotive value chain here, not all of them benign.
However, the government can play a beneficial role here by providing direction in our, We the People, national interest and supplying certainty as to policy directions. Such rethinking is rare hereabouts, but the clock is, well, TiKToK-ing as we move forward into 2023. We need to cast aside the policy making obstructionists whose sole concern is their own tailor-made well-being. (DOJ Thwarts Chinese Takeover of Shipping Containers; Automaker Profits Post-Covid Hiding Supplier Weakness)
Finally, we come to the promise and the curse of autonomous vehicles. The Department of Transportation’s efforts to increase roadway safety through innovation has encountered bumpy roads this past year when the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration published the initial round of data collected through its Standing General Order of last year. The SGO, issued in June 2021, requires for the first time that manufacturers and operators of vehicles equipped with SAE L2 ADAS or SAE Levels 3-5 ADS report to NHTSA certain crashes when the systems are engaged.
The SGO is a first step toward helping the Department take a more data-derived approach to ensuring that AV technology is deployed safely and will help inform its future actions, including those to educate consumers and build confidence in advanced vehicle technologies. (click here for: Safety Performance of Advanced Vehicle Technologies Murky; SAE Autonomous Driving Levels explained at AutoInformed.)
Automakers have been adding these systems at unprecedented rates recently since they are vital steps necessary on the road to autonomous vehicles. However, there are unexpected dire consequences accompanying the use of these “safety systems.” No argument here that new vehicle technologies have the potential to help prevent crashes, reduce crash severity and save lives. Moreover an aging population needs help with all forms of mobility.
In spite of this, it is much more complex and expensive problem than exponents original depicted. Deployment of autonomous vehicles now appears to be more like in the next decade of this century. (Ford Motor Q3 Earnings to Take $1B Cost Hit; Ford Motor Posts Q3 Net Loss of $827 Million)
One bright spot. “Automated vehicle development is advancing across all transportation modes. There are 39 state-level jurisdictions actively engaged in permitting testing or full deployment of driverless highway vehicles in 2022, more widespread autonomous port systems and ships, and the use of Positive Train Control in railroads,” said The Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) in the Transportation Statistical Annual Report last week.
*Trump Economic Policy Disasters