Click to enlarge.
Fiscal policy increased U.S. GDP growth by 0.3 percentage point in the fourth quarter of 2024, the Hutchins Center Fiscal Impact Measure (FIM)* released today shows. The FIM translates changes in taxes and spending at federal, state, and local levels into changes in aggregate demand, showing the effect of fiscal policy on real GDP growth. GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the government’s latest estimate. The 0.3 percentage point increase in the fourth quarter was largely the result of slightly stimulative taxes and transfers.
“We expect the FIM to turn negative in the next quarter and remain so through the end of our forecast period (the fourth quarter of 2026), largely driven by weak growth in federal and state purchases and only partially offset by strong growth in net transfers.
This projection assumes that the provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that are set to expire at the end of 2025 are extended. Without this assumption, the FIM would be more negative in 2026. This projection does not reflect any other changes in legislation, nor does it reflect the impact of President Trump’s executive orders.” Hutchins said.
“The FIM tracks the influence of fiscal policy on GDP growth rates. It measures the direct impacts of fiscal policy on demand (including both discretionary fiscal policy and automatic stabilizers) and also includes our estimates of the supply-side effects of the Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS and Science Act. It doesn’t include fiscal multipliers. For an analysis that includes multipliers, as well as a more detailed breakdown of the components of the FIM, read our explainer on how pandemic-era fiscal policy affects the level of GDP, which includes a comparison of actual GDP with our estimate of what GDP might have been had fiscal policy failed to respond to the pandemic,” Hutchins said.
*The Hutchins Center Fiscal Impact Measure (FIM), which measures how much federal, state, and local tax and spending policy adds to or subtracts from overall economic growth, shows that fiscal policy has boosted economic growth on average.
About Ken Zino
Ken Zino, editor and publisher of AutoInformed, is a versatile auto industry participant with global experience spanning decades in print and broadcast journalism, as well as social media. He has automobile testing, marketing, public relations and communications experience. He is past president of The International Motor Press Assn, the Detroit Press Club, founding member and first President of the Automotive Press Assn. He is a member of APA, IMPA and the Midwest Automotive Press Assn.
He also brings an historical perspective while citing their contemporary relevance of the work of legendary auto writers such as Ken Purdy, Jim Dunne or Jerry Flint, or writers such as Red Smith, Mark Twain, Thomas Jefferson – all to bring perspective to a chaotic automotive universe.
Above all, decades after he first drove a car, Zino still revels in the sound of the exhaust as the throttle is blipped during a downshift and the driver’s rush that occurs when the entry, apex and exit points of a turn are smoothly and swiftly crossed. It’s the beginning of a perfect lap.
AutoInformed has an editorial philosophy that loves transportation machines of all kinds while promoting critical thinking about the future use of cars and trucks.
Zino builds AutoInformed from his background in automotive journalism starting at Hearst Publishing in New York City on Motor and MotorTech Magazines and car testing where he reviewed hundreds of vehicles in his decade-long stint as the Detroit Bureau Chief of Road & Track magazine. Zino has also worked in Europe, and Asia – now the largest automotive market in the world with China at its center.
U.S. GDP Growth Puny in Q4 2024
Click to enlarge.
Fiscal policy increased U.S. GDP growth by 0.3 percentage point in the fourth quarter of 2024, the Hutchins Center Fiscal Impact Measure (FIM)* released today shows. The FIM translates changes in taxes and spending at federal, state, and local levels into changes in aggregate demand, showing the effect of fiscal policy on real GDP growth. GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the government’s latest estimate. The 0.3 percentage point increase in the fourth quarter was largely the result of slightly stimulative taxes and transfers.
“We expect the FIM to turn negative in the next quarter and remain so through the end of our forecast period (the fourth quarter of 2026), largely driven by weak growth in federal and state purchases and only partially offset by strong growth in net transfers.
This projection assumes that the provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that are set to expire at the end of 2025 are extended. Without this assumption, the FIM would be more negative in 2026. This projection does not reflect any other changes in legislation, nor does it reflect the impact of President Trump’s executive orders.” Hutchins said.
“The FIM tracks the influence of fiscal policy on GDP growth rates. It measures the direct impacts of fiscal policy on demand (including both discretionary fiscal policy and automatic stabilizers) and also includes our estimates of the supply-side effects of the Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS and Science Act. It doesn’t include fiscal multipliers. For an analysis that includes multipliers, as well as a more detailed breakdown of the components of the FIM, read our explainer on how pandemic-era fiscal policy affects the level of GDP, which includes a comparison of actual GDP with our estimate of what GDP might have been had fiscal policy failed to respond to the pandemic,” Hutchins said.
*The Hutchins Center Fiscal Impact Measure (FIM), which measures how much federal, state, and local tax and spending policy adds to or subtracts from overall economic growth, shows that fiscal policy has boosted economic growth on average.
About Ken Zino
Ken Zino, editor and publisher of AutoInformed, is a versatile auto industry participant with global experience spanning decades in print and broadcast journalism, as well as social media. He has automobile testing, marketing, public relations and communications experience. He is past president of The International Motor Press Assn, the Detroit Press Club, founding member and first President of the Automotive Press Assn. He is a member of APA, IMPA and the Midwest Automotive Press Assn. He also brings an historical perspective while citing their contemporary relevance of the work of legendary auto writers such as Ken Purdy, Jim Dunne or Jerry Flint, or writers such as Red Smith, Mark Twain, Thomas Jefferson – all to bring perspective to a chaotic automotive universe. Above all, decades after he first drove a car, Zino still revels in the sound of the exhaust as the throttle is blipped during a downshift and the driver’s rush that occurs when the entry, apex and exit points of a turn are smoothly and swiftly crossed. It’s the beginning of a perfect lap. AutoInformed has an editorial philosophy that loves transportation machines of all kinds while promoting critical thinking about the future use of cars and trucks. Zino builds AutoInformed from his background in automotive journalism starting at Hearst Publishing in New York City on Motor and MotorTech Magazines and car testing where he reviewed hundreds of vehicles in his decade-long stint as the Detroit Bureau Chief of Road & Track magazine. Zino has also worked in Europe, and Asia – now the largest automotive market in the world with China at its center.