Click to Enlarge.
During February 2021, new passenger car registrations in the European Union dropped by 19.3%, as COVID containment actions, a botched vaccination program and overall uncertainty continue to negatively affect demand of a key industry.
With 771,486 units registered across the EU region, according to ACEA, this marked the lowest February total on record since 2013. All four major EU markets recorded losses last month. Italy posted the smallest drop (-12.3%), while the other markets faced stronger deterioration: Germany (-19.0%), France (-20.9%) and Spain (-38.4%).
From January to February 2021, total registrations of new cars in the European Union were 21.7% lower than during the same period in 2020. So far this year, demand fell in each of the major markets. Spain was the hardest hit, with sales almost halved (-44.6%) compared to last year, followed by Germany (-25.1%), France (-14.2%) and Italy (-13.1%).
Jobs and Economy
- 6 million Europeans work in the auto industry (directly and indirectly), accounting for 6.7% of all EU jobs.
- 5% of EU manufacturing jobs – some 3.7 million – are in the automotive sector.
The first three months of 2020 show a production decline of 18% in European light vehicle production compared with the same period of 2019 – the cause of this is already well documented.
However, in a way, the results for 2021 are even more interesting with a drop on the 2019 production figure of 18%. Clearly, the 2021 numbers are being influenced by the continuing impact of the pandemic on demand, but it is now the chip shortage which has come to the fore. This loss to production has intensified over the second quarter – demonstrated by the widening gaps between 2019 and 2021 volumes from March onwards – with build from January-May this year dropping by 20% when compared with 2019. Although substantial, it should be noted that this is still only half as deep as seen over the same period in 2020 (-42% YoY).
Despite a tumultuous start to 2021, we expect the slow recovery to pre-pandemic levels to resume over the second half of the year as disruptions from the chip shortage begin to fade, after peaking in Q2. Alongside this, and perhaps more importantly, demand should improve as lock-down measures ease following the continued rollout of vaccines. As such, European Light Vehicle production is predicted to fall by 9% in 2021 from the 2019 level, a vast improvement on the fall between 2019 and 2020.
James Norris is Senior Analyst, European Light Vehicle Production at LMC Consultancy – editor