Click for more information.
Total new-vehicle sales for December 2022, including retail and non-retail transactions, are forecast to reach 1,254,700 units, a 5.3% increase from December 2021, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and LMC Automotive.* December 2022 has the same number of selling days as December 2021. The record transaction prices means that buyers are on track to spend nearly $48.2 billion on new vehicles this month, a slight -0.3% decrease from December 2021.
The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is forecast at 13.2 million units, up 7000,000 units from 2021. New-vehicle total sales in Q4 2022 are projected to reach 3,549,800, a 9.6% increase over Q4 2021 when adjusted for selling days. New-vehicle total sales for 2022 are projected to reach 13,687,000 units, an 8.4% decrease from 2021, adjusted for selling days.
New-vehicle retail sales for December 2022 are forecast to decline when compared with December 2021. Retail sales of new vehicles this month are expected to reach 1,039,200 units, a -2.8% decrease from December 2021. New-vehicle retail sales in Q4 2022 are projected to reach 2,938,500 units, a 1.3% increase from Q4 2021 when adjusted for selling days. New- vehicle retail sales for 2022 are projected to reach 11,648,200 units, an 11.3% decrease from 2021 when adjusted for selling days.
“Retail inventory in December is expected to finish its third consecutive month at more than one million units. With the improving inventory levels, December total sales volume will be up from a year ago, however there are still not enough vehicles produced to meet demand. Transaction prices will hit a record high for the month even with shoppers becoming a bit more sensitive to retailer mark-up addendums over MSRP. The reduction in mark-ups is pushing dealer profits off their record high levels, however, per-unit profitably is still nearly double pre-pandemic levels.,” said Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power.
“While the inventory situation has improved modestly in the fourth quarter, supply remains well below the level at which consumer demand for new vehicles can be met. New-vehicle transaction prices continue to rise—albeit at a slower pace than earlier this year. The average price in December will set a record of $46,382, an increase of 2.5% from a year ago,” King noted.
“Looking at 2023, retail sales will continue to be dictated by the number of vehicles shipped to dealerships. Indications are that shipments will rise incrementally throughout the year, allowing sales to increase from 2022 levels. However, even with the probability of an economic downturn, pent-up consumer demand from the past two years will keep inventory levels relatively low. Therefore, 2023 is likely to be another year of relative healthy pricing and profitability,” said King.
Consider
- Manufacturer discounts are up slightly from a month ago, however, they remain historically low. The average incentive spend per vehicle is tracking toward $1,187, a decrease of 21.4% from a year ago. Incentive spending per vehicle expressed as a percentage of the average vehicle MSRP is trending at 2.5%, down 0.8 percentage points from December 2021.
- Absence of discounts on vehicles that are leased. This month, leasing is accounting for just 18% of retail sales. In December 2019, leases accounted for 30% of all new-vehicle retail sales.
- Elevated pricing coupled with repeated interest rate increases continue to inflate monthly loan payments. After breaking the $700 level for the first time on record in July, the average monthly finance payment in December is on pace to be $718, up $47 from December 2021. That translates to a 7.0% increase in monthly payments from a year ago.
- The average interest rate on new-vehicle loans is expected to increase 247 basis points from a year ago to 6.4%.
*LMC Automotive – a GlobalData Company
LMC Automotive is a leading independent and exclusively automotive focused provider of global forecasting and market intelligence in the areas of vehicle sales, production, powertrains and electrification. The company’s global client base includes car and truck makers, component manufacturers and suppliers, financial, logistics and government institutions. LMC Automotive is part of the LMC group, as is J.D. Power. LMC is also the world’s leading economic and business consultancy for the agribusiness sector. For more information about LMC Automotive, visit www.lmc-auto.com. or contact LMC directly at forecasting@lmc-auto.com.
About Ken Zino
Ken Zino, publisher (kzhw@aol.com), is a versatile auto industry participant with global experience spanning decades in print and broadcast journalism, as well as social media. He has automobile testing, marketing, public relations and communications experience. He is past president of The International Motor Press Assn, the Detroit Press Club, founding member and first President of the Automotive Press Assn. He is a member of APA, IMPA and the Midwest Automotive Press Assn.
Zino is at home on test tracks, knows his way around U.S. Congressional hearing rooms, auto company headquarters, plant floors, as well as industry research and development labs where the real mobility work is done. He can quote from court decisions, refer to instrumented road tests, analyze financial results, and profile executive personalities and corporate cultures.
He also brings an historical perspective while citing their contemporary relevance of the work of legendary auto writers such as Ken Purdy, Jim Dunne or Jerry Flint, or writers such as Red Smith, Mark Twain, Thomas Jefferson – all to bring perspective to a chaotic automotive universe.
Above all, decades after he first drove a car, Zino still revels in the sound of the exhaust as the throttle is blipped and the driver’s rush that occurs when the entry, apex and exit points of a turn are smoothly and swiftly crossed. It’s the beginning of a perfect lap.
AutoInformed has an editorial philosophy that loves transportation machines of all kinds while promoting critical thinking about the future use of cars and trucks.
Zino builds AutoInformed from his background in automotive journalism starting at Hearst Publishing in New York City on Motor and MotorTech Magazines and car testing where he reviewed hundreds of vehicles in his decade-long stint as the Detroit Bureau Chief of Road & Track magazine. Zino has also worked in Europe, and Asia – now the largest automotive market in the world with China at its center.
December US Sales Up. Transaction Prices at Record Highs
Click for more information.
Total new-vehicle sales for December 2022, including retail and non-retail transactions, are forecast to reach 1,254,700 units, a 5.3% increase from December 2021, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and LMC Automotive.* December 2022 has the same number of selling days as December 2021. The record transaction prices means that buyers are on track to spend nearly $48.2 billion on new vehicles this month, a slight -0.3% decrease from December 2021.
The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is forecast at 13.2 million units, up 7000,000 units from 2021. New-vehicle total sales in Q4 2022 are projected to reach 3,549,800, a 9.6% increase over Q4 2021 when adjusted for selling days. New-vehicle total sales for 2022 are projected to reach 13,687,000 units, an 8.4% decrease from 2021, adjusted for selling days.
New-vehicle retail sales for December 2022 are forecast to decline when compared with December 2021. Retail sales of new vehicles this month are expected to reach 1,039,200 units, a -2.8% decrease from December 2021. New-vehicle retail sales in Q4 2022 are projected to reach 2,938,500 units, a 1.3% increase from Q4 2021 when adjusted for selling days. New- vehicle retail sales for 2022 are projected to reach 11,648,200 units, an 11.3% decrease from 2021 when adjusted for selling days.
“Retail inventory in December is expected to finish its third consecutive month at more than one million units. With the improving inventory levels, December total sales volume will be up from a year ago, however there are still not enough vehicles produced to meet demand. Transaction prices will hit a record high for the month even with shoppers becoming a bit more sensitive to retailer mark-up addendums over MSRP. The reduction in mark-ups is pushing dealer profits off their record high levels, however, per-unit profitably is still nearly double pre-pandemic levels.,” said Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power.
“While the inventory situation has improved modestly in the fourth quarter, supply remains well below the level at which consumer demand for new vehicles can be met. New-vehicle transaction prices continue to rise—albeit at a slower pace than earlier this year. The average price in December will set a record of $46,382, an increase of 2.5% from a year ago,” King noted.
“Looking at 2023, retail sales will continue to be dictated by the number of vehicles shipped to dealerships. Indications are that shipments will rise incrementally throughout the year, allowing sales to increase from 2022 levels. However, even with the probability of an economic downturn, pent-up consumer demand from the past two years will keep inventory levels relatively low. Therefore, 2023 is likely to be another year of relative healthy pricing and profitability,” said King.
Consider
*LMC Automotive – a GlobalData Company
LMC Automotive is a leading independent and exclusively automotive focused provider of global forecasting and market intelligence in the areas of vehicle sales, production, powertrains and electrification. The company’s global client base includes car and truck makers, component manufacturers and suppliers, financial, logistics and government institutions. LMC Automotive is part of the LMC group, as is J.D. Power. LMC is also the world’s leading economic and business consultancy for the agribusiness sector. For more information about LMC Automotive, visit www.lmc-auto.com. or contact LMC directly at forecasting@lmc-auto.com.
About Ken Zino
Ken Zino, publisher (kzhw@aol.com), is a versatile auto industry participant with global experience spanning decades in print and broadcast journalism, as well as social media. He has automobile testing, marketing, public relations and communications experience. He is past president of The International Motor Press Assn, the Detroit Press Club, founding member and first President of the Automotive Press Assn. He is a member of APA, IMPA and the Midwest Automotive Press Assn. Zino is at home on test tracks, knows his way around U.S. Congressional hearing rooms, auto company headquarters, plant floors, as well as industry research and development labs where the real mobility work is done. He can quote from court decisions, refer to instrumented road tests, analyze financial results, and profile executive personalities and corporate cultures. He also brings an historical perspective while citing their contemporary relevance of the work of legendary auto writers such as Ken Purdy, Jim Dunne or Jerry Flint, or writers such as Red Smith, Mark Twain, Thomas Jefferson – all to bring perspective to a chaotic automotive universe. Above all, decades after he first drove a car, Zino still revels in the sound of the exhaust as the throttle is blipped and the driver’s rush that occurs when the entry, apex and exit points of a turn are smoothly and swiftly crossed. It’s the beginning of a perfect lap. AutoInformed has an editorial philosophy that loves transportation machines of all kinds while promoting critical thinking about the future use of cars and trucks. Zino builds AutoInformed from his background in automotive journalism starting at Hearst Publishing in New York City on Motor and MotorTech Magazines and car testing where he reviewed hundreds of vehicles in his decade-long stint as the Detroit Bureau Chief of Road & Track magazine. Zino has also worked in Europe, and Asia – now the largest automotive market in the world with China at its center.