The U.S. sales recovery might be picking up its pace.
January 2013 new vehicle sales are predicted to come in at 812,600 vehicles for a seasonally adjusted annualized rate or SAAR of 12.9 million units. This is 14% higher than January 2012. Total light-vehicle sales in January 2013 in the United States are projected to reach 1,027,700 units, an 8% increase from January 2012.
The encouraging January sales prediction, if true, is well ahead of the forecast of 12.4-million-unit annual level for 2013.
Fleet share is expected to reach 21%, considerably lower than the 25% share in January 2012, perhaps signaling that the auto industry’s oft-expressed wish to cut unprofitable sales to car rental firms is finally occurring now that consumer demand is recovering.
“Building on the momentum the industry has been gaining over the past two years, sales remain on a trajectory to return to pre-recession levels within the next few years,” said John Humphrey of J.D. Power, the source of the data, which was based on the first 15 selling days of the month.
North America light-vehicle production was 15.4 million units in 2012, 18% higher than in 2011, the first time since 2007 that North American production has surpassed 15 million units.
Vehicle inventory in early January was a manageable 59-day supply – 60 is considered ideal -compared with 69 days in December. A strong sales pace in November and December 2012, coupled with the holiday production shutdowns in late 2012 trimmed inventories. Overall, there are approximately 3.1 million units currently available on dealer lots or in transit–an increase of about 600,000 units from January 2012.
Based on a strong finish in 2012 and a higher-than-expected pace to begin 2013, LMC Automotive is increasing its 2013 U.S. forecast for total light-vehicle sales by 100,000 units to 15.1 million. In addition, the outlook for retail light-vehicle sales increases to 12.4 million units from 12.2 million units for 2013.
LMC projects 2013 North American production to be 15.9 million units in 2013, A +3% increase from 2012, with further upside potential contingent on the pace of demand in the first half of the year. For 2014, the North American production forecast is expected to increase to 16.6 million units.
