June Global Light Vehicle Selling Rate Drops to 82.4 Million

Ken Zino of Auto Informed.com on the recovery of the global auto industry is uncertain given the flawed vaccination polices of nations comprising the world’s largest auto markets.

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The Global Light Vehicle selling rate was 82.4 million units/year in June, according to the highly regarded LMC Automotive consultancy. This is a slight dip from what is now an upwardly revised 82.9 million units/year in May, which in itself was weaker than the preceding April and March.

The short-term trend is clear though. The recovery of the global auto industry is by no means assured given the flawed vaccination polices of nations comprising the world’s largest auto markets. Worse, the appearance of the aggressive and deadly Delta variant corona virus variant, as well as the ongoing semi-conductor shortage considerably cloud forecasting for the upcoming months. “The semiconductor shortage is clearly having an impact on selling rates in key markets. With no immediate remedy in sight, there is a risk of the situation worsening in coming months which could further disrupt the post-pandemic recovery in demand,” said LMC.

North America

The US Light Vehicle market began to see a material impact from the chip shortage in June. Although sales grew by 16.6% YoY, to 1.3 mn units, there is still a low base effect in the numbers. The selling rate fell to 15.4 mn units/year in June, from 17.2 mn units/year in May, “revealing how the market is starting to cool, due in large part to low inventories. With so little stock to spare, dealers continue to focus on retail sales at the expense of fleet, which accounted for only 12.7% of total sales in June. Average transaction prices hit an all-time high of USD39,942 in June, while incentives fell below 6% of MSRP for the first time ever,” said LMC

Canadian LV sales were up by 6.5% YoY in June, to 166,000 units. The selling rate speed up to 1.73 mn units/year, from 1.43 mn units/year in May. “The gradual lifting of pandemic-related restrictions in some provinces supported sales, though there is still a long way to go to achieve full recovery. In Mexico, sales grew by 38.6% YoY, to just under 87k units, but the selling rate slipped to a five-month low of 1.07 mn units/year, from 1.11 mn units/year in May,” said LMC.

Europe

The West European selling rate rose to 13.7 mn units/year in June, continuing the gradual upward trend seen through the first half of this year. “However, with an average selling rate of 12.9 mn units/year for H1 2021, there is still plenty of room for improvement,” said LMC. In Eastern Europe, the selling rate  barely increased to 4.5 mn units/year in June from 4.4 mn units/year in May. “The region has seen a better recovery through H1 than Western Europe, helped on by a strong Russian sales performance,” observed LMC.

China

According to preliminary data, sales (wholesales. Chinese retail data is difficult to obtain – editor) in China remained lethargic last month, as the semiconductor shortage continues to hurt production. The June selling rate was 25.2 mn units/year, virtually unchanged from May. In H1 2021, the selling rate averaged 24.8 mn units/year, “a marked deceleration, compared to the average rate of 29.2 mn units/year in H2 2020,” said LMC.

“While the market in general remains lackluster, NEV sales continued to advance strongly, expanding by over 150% YoY in June. In contrast to the struggling foreign brands, Chinese brands continued to increase their market share, as they appear to have moved faster than buy valtrex online australia foreign OEMs in response to the emergence of the chip shortage in late 2020. Looking ahead, the lingering concern over the pandemic remains a risk for the Chinese economy and auto market,” said LMC.

Other Asia

In Japan, the impact of the semiconductor shortage on sales has started to become more obvious. In June, the selling rate dropped to a 12-month low of 4.1 mn units/year, the second consecutive month of biting slowdown. Major OEMs, including Honda, Toyota and Suzuki, have been forced to cut production due to the chip shortage, with a long delivery period for some popular models. “That, however, suggests that sales could rebound fairly strongly once the supply issue eases,” said LMC.

The Korean market has slowed, although the chip situation is “clearly improving.” The June selling rate was 1.78 mn units/year, unchanged from May. The selling rate averaged 1.78 mn units/year in Q2, compared to an average rate of 1.84 mn units/year in Q1. “With daily COVID-19 cases soaring, July sales are likely to be disrupted by the imposition of the toughest social restrictions in the Greater Seoul area. During the rest of this year, however, the ongoing temporary tax cut should help support sales,” said LMC

South America

Brazilian Light Vehicle sales were up by 37.6% YoY in June, to 170,000. “As the year-ago sales start to recover, the YoY gains were bound to become more modest, but June’s selling rate demonstrated that the market stalled somewhat. The rate decelerated to 1.97 mn units/year, from 2.13 mn units/year in May. Inventory shortages, especially of some high-volume models, seemed to hold back sales in June, with production lines halted for months in some cases,” said LMC.

In Argentina, Light Vehicle sales fell in YoY terms for the first time in six months in June, albeit by a modest 0.6%, and largely due to a relatively high base effect. The 35,000 units sold in June translated into an annualized selling rate of 399,000 units/year, a significant improvement over the 248,000 units/year in May. “The uptick in the rate appeared to be a result of the easing of coronavirus restrictions, and possibly also delayed registrations from May’s lockdown,” according to LMC.

About LMC

For 30 years, LMC says its mission “has been to provide the most comprehensive, timely and actionable services to all sectors of the auto industry. Focusing exclusively on this sector, while being highly responsive to our large and growing client base of car and truck makers, component manufacturers and suppliers, and financial and government institutions, has fostered our rapid growth. Today, from offices in all the major automotive markets, LMC provides insights and forecasts for both the Light Vehicle and Commercial Vehicle sectors, with specific emphasis on vehicle sales, production and propulsion systems. Our experts examine global industry dynamics from every angle – be they macroeconomic trends, market and production developments or regulatory and technological changes. These insights are shaped into a comprehensive suite of services that can be tailored to an individual client’s needs and are delivered in a range of flexible and sophisticated formats.”

LMC Automotive is part of the LMC group, originally founded in 1980, which provides market intelligence, analysis and advice to clients around the world involved with agricultural commodities, foods, industrial materials, biofuels and their end-markets. A separate company in the group specializes in the coverage of the rubber and tire sectors.

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