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Affordability and supply problems dropped US September light vehicle sales to their lowest point during Covid-plagued 2021. They were, in fact, at their lowest level for the month of September since 2010, according to LMC Automotive, a respected independent automotive global forecasting and market intelligence company.
Automakers sold just under 1 million during September, down by -25% YoY. The annualized rate fell to 12 million units, the same level registered in May 2020 and 1 million units under the August Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate, aka SAAR. During Q3 light vehicle sales totaled 3.36 million units, down by -14% YoY and the lowest Q3 since 2011 as volumes plunged -22% from the pre-pandemic level in Q3 2019. (GM Q3 US Sales Drop -33% as Semiconductor Shortage Bites)
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September had the same 25 selling days from a year ago, and the typically strong selling Labor Day weekend failed to help volume. Retail sales of 866,000 units were the decline in the month, while fleet sales are estimated to have fallen by -15% YoY.
Worse, average transaction prices broke the +$42,000 threshold for the first time and incentives remained below the US$2,000/unit. Dealers are paying premiums for trade-in vehicles, but affordability problematic to sales “as rising prices may not be offset by higher trade-in values, pushing some consumers out of the new vehicle market,” observes LMC.
During Q3 light vehicle sales totaled 3.36 million units, down by -14% YoY and the lowest Q3 sinc 2011 as volumes plunged -22% from the pre-pandemic level in Q3 2019.
“The quarter ended with some important changes in sales ranking. Toyota outsold General Motors by 123,000 units. September was such a weak month for GM that four other OEMs had stronger volume performance, with Hyundai topping GM for the first time ever. Stellantis ended the quarter ahead of Ford, and Hyundai outsold Honda,” said Augusto Amorim, Senior Manager, Americas Vehicle Sales Forecasts, LMC.
“The Ford F-150 was the only model to sell more than 100,000 units in Q3, followed by the Toyota RAV4 and Chevrolet Silverado. The surprise was that the Jeep Grand Cherokee and Toyota Camry were also among the bestselling top 5 models. As the Detroit 3 have been hit particularly hard by the parts shortages, imported vehicles have gained ground in the US. They accounted for 25% of sales so far this year, up by 2 percentage points from a year ago,” Amorim observed.
Once again LMC cut its forecast. The recovery in production is not expected to start replenishing inventory levels until late 2022 or early 2023. The 2021 outlook has been cut by -700,000 units to just under 15.0 million units and only 500,000 units higher than 2020. Retail sales account for most of the reduction, and the LMC forecast is now at 13.0 million units, down from 13.7 million. Fleet sales were cut by 4% to 1.9 million units, 13% of total Light Vehicles. This is LMC’s lowest fleet share since LMC started tracking the retail and fleet split 15 years ago.
Still, LMC is carefully optimistic.
“While some assembly plants are slated to come back online, other plants have had downtime extended and new stoppages have been added, creating a chaotic environment in manufacturing in North America and globally. Risk remains elevated well into 2022 given the short supply of semiconductors and other parts. While the recovery, in terms of volume and time-frame, has been downgraded several times over the past three months, volumes are projected to gradually improve over the next 12-18 months, and the market may finally be closing in on the peak lows,” said Jeff Schuster, President, Americas Operations and Global Vehicle Forecasts, LMC Automotive.
September US Auto Sales at 2021 Low Point
Click to Enlarge.
Affordability and supply problems dropped US September light vehicle sales to their lowest point during Covid-plagued 2021. They were, in fact, at their lowest level for the month of September since 2010, according to LMC Automotive, a respected independent automotive global forecasting and market intelligence company.
Automakers sold just under 1 million during September, down by -25% YoY. The annualized rate fell to 12 million units, the same level registered in May 2020 and 1 million units under the August Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate, aka SAAR. During Q3 light vehicle sales totaled 3.36 million units, down by -14% YoY and the lowest Q3 since 2011 as volumes plunged -22% from the pre-pandemic level in Q3 2019. (GM Q3 US Sales Drop -33% as Semiconductor Shortage Bites)
Click to Enlarge.
September had the same 25 selling days from a year ago, and the typically strong selling Labor Day weekend failed to help volume. Retail sales of 866,000 units were the decline in the month, while fleet sales are estimated to have fallen by -15% YoY.
Worse, average transaction prices broke the +$42,000 threshold for the first time and incentives remained below the US$2,000/unit. Dealers are paying premiums for trade-in vehicles, but affordability problematic to sales “as rising prices may not be offset by higher trade-in values, pushing some consumers out of the new vehicle market,” observes LMC.
During Q3 light vehicle sales totaled 3.36 million units, down by -14% YoY and the lowest Q3 sinc 2011 as volumes plunged -22% from the pre-pandemic level in Q3 2019.
“The quarter ended with some important changes in sales ranking. Toyota outsold General Motors by 123,000 units. September was such a weak month for GM that four other OEMs had stronger volume performance, with Hyundai topping GM for the first time ever. Stellantis ended the quarter ahead of Ford, and Hyundai outsold Honda,” said Augusto Amorim, Senior Manager, Americas Vehicle Sales Forecasts, LMC.
“The Ford F-150 was the only model to sell more than 100,000 units in Q3, followed by the Toyota RAV4 and Chevrolet Silverado. The surprise was that the Jeep Grand Cherokee and Toyota Camry were also among the bestselling top 5 models. As the Detroit 3 have been hit particularly hard by the parts shortages, imported vehicles have gained ground in the US. They accounted for 25% of sales so far this year, up by 2 percentage points from a year ago,” Amorim observed.
Once again LMC cut its forecast. The recovery in production is not expected to start replenishing inventory levels until late 2022 or early 2023. The 2021 outlook has been cut by -700,000 units to just under 15.0 million units and only 500,000 units higher than 2020. Retail sales account for most of the reduction, and the LMC forecast is now at 13.0 million units, down from 13.7 million. Fleet sales were cut by 4% to 1.9 million units, 13% of total Light Vehicles. This is LMC’s lowest fleet share since LMC started tracking the retail and fleet split 15 years ago.
Still, LMC is carefully optimistic.
“While some assembly plants are slated to come back online, other plants have had downtime extended and new stoppages have been added, creating a chaotic environment in manufacturing in North America and globally. Risk remains elevated well into 2022 given the short supply of semiconductors and other parts. While the recovery, in terms of volume and time-frame, has been downgraded several times over the past three months, volumes are projected to gradually improve over the next 12-18 months, and the market may finally be closing in on the peak lows,” said Jeff Schuster, President, Americas Operations and Global Vehicle Forecasts, LMC Automotive.