Tag Archives: Sarah Ahmad

Fiscal policy increased U.S. GDP growth by 0.3 percentage point in the fourth quarter of 2024, the Hutchins Center Fiscal Impact Measure (FIM)* released today shows. The FIM translates changes in taxes and spending at federal, state, and local levels into changes in aggregate demand, showing the effect of fiscal policy on real GDP growth. GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the government’s latest estimate. The 0.3 percentage point increase in the fourth quarter was largely the result of slightly stimulative taxes and transfers.

“We expect the FIM to turn negative in the next quarter and remain so through the end of our forecast period (the fourth quarter of 2026), largely driven by weak growth in federal and state purchases and only partially offset by strong growth in net transfers. Continue reading →