A revised forecast just released says that U.S. auto sales in 2016-2023 will drop nearly 250,000 units each year from 2016-2023, with a larger reduction in 2016 and 2017. The soothsaying was based on the current plateauing of year-on-year U.S. auto sales growth, combined with growing economic and political risk in the U.S., as well as globally. This potentially hurts trade, the U.S. economy. and consumer confidence.
During to 2016, according to LMC Automotive, the U.S. auto sales forecast was cut by 300,000 units to 17.4 million units from 17.7 million units, a -1.7% reduction. This represents a 0.3% contraction or about 40,000 units lower than the record level of 17.44 million units in 2015. Nearly all of this reduction was made to retail sales, bringing the forecast for retail light vehicle sales down to 14.0 million units from 14.3 million units previously.
“Our latest forecast now reflects the reality that the growth track that the US market has been on since 2009 has stalled and appears to be leveling off, but it does not necessarily signal that further contractions or an automotive recession is imminent,” said Jeff Schuster, Senior Vice President Forecasting at LMC Automotive.
While the strong recovery and growth since the recession of 2009 may be coming to an end, LMC Automotive continues to expect the U.S. automotive market to remain solid over the forecast horizon, with volume forecasts holding at a mid-17-million-unit level before slowly climbing past 18 million units by 2022.
About Ken Zino
Ken Zino, editor and publisher of AutoInformed, is a versatile auto industry participant with global experience spanning decades in print and broadcast journalism, as well as social media. He has automobile testing, marketing, public relations and communications experience. He is past president of The International Motor Press Assn, the Detroit Press Club, founding member and first President of the Automotive Press Assn. He is a member of APA, IMPA and the Midwest Automotive Press Assn.
He also brings an historical perspective while citing their contemporary relevance of the work of legendary auto writers such as Ken Purdy, Jim Dunne or Jerry Flint, or writers such as Red Smith, Mark Twain, Thomas Jefferson – all to bring perspective to a chaotic automotive universe.
Above all, decades after he first drove a car, Zino still revels in the sound of the exhaust as the throttle is blipped during a downshift and the driver’s rush that occurs when the entry, apex and exit points of a turn are smoothly and swiftly crossed. It’s the beginning of a perfect lap.
AutoInformed has an editorial philosophy that loves transportation machines of all kinds while promoting critical thinking about the future use of cars and trucks.
Zino builds AutoInformed from his background in automotive journalism starting at Hearst Publishing in New York City on Motor and MotorTech Magazines and car testing where he reviewed hundreds of vehicles in his decade-long stint as the Detroit Bureau Chief of Road & Track magazine. Zino has also worked in Europe, and Asia – now the largest automotive market in the world with China at its center.
