Prognostications are now well underway among consulting firms to predict 2013 U.S. auto sales. On the eve of the final results for 2012 U.S. auto sales, one firm has new light vehicle registrations in the U.S. in 2013 increasing 6.6% from 2012 levels to 15.3 million vehicles.
This means that the 2012 sales rate of growth at ~14% will slow dramatically, but the auto industry will have a healthy year, albeit far below the pre-recession levels of 2007 with its sales of 17 million new cars and light trucks.
According to an analysis from Polk, new vehicle introductions in 2013 will increase 50%, with 43 new vehicle introductions in the U.S. planned for the year. Industry veterans know the obvious here: that launch of new and refreshed products with concurrent massive advertising and p.r. budgets behind them, tend to result in more showroom traffic and, in turn, increased sales.
Polk mirrors LMC’s earlier guess that the outlook for 2013 is 15 million units for total light-vehicle sales and 12.2 million for retail sales. (December U.S. Auto Sales Forecast to Close the Best Year Since 2007)
As always, though, Harry Truman’s search for a one-handed economist is fruitless.
“The auto sector is likely to continue to be one of the key sectors that lead the U.S. economic recovery,” says Anthony Pratt, director of forecasting for the Americas at Polk. “However, our baseline forecast hinges on Washington’s ability to draft a budget plan that will avoid $600 billion in spending cuts and tax increases.”
We will see about that as taxes are clearly going up, as neither party will admit that 2013 will be a year when taxpayers get less – sooner of later – for more taxes sooner.
As AutoInformed observed last year (GM to Face F-Series, Ram with New 2014 Silverado, Sierra Pickups) the pickup truck segment, which has declined over the past five years, will likely grow because if new launches in 2013 and into the 2014 model year. GM, Toyota and Ford are all planning to release redesigned pickups this during the next 6 to 24 months. To this, add a slowly recovering market for new housing starts within the construction industry, which clearly helps new pickup sales and the Detroit Three in particular, should be printing money almost as fast as the Federal Reserve currently is since pickups remain by far and away their most profitable mainstream vehicles.
The mid-size sedan segment will continue to lead the industry. Currently at more than 18.5% of the overall market (Read AutoInformed on this in Top Ten Auto Stories of 2012); the industry’s largest, Polk anticipates it will continue to grow in the coming year. Polk also forecasts the industry will experience continued growth in the compact and subcompact segments, as OEMs are introducing several new models in the coming year. No argument here.
We also agree with Polk and virtually every other consultancy that while the number of hybrid models in the U.S. will increase this year, there will only be a slight improvement in this segment from its current level of approximately 2.9% of the overall market (Read AutoInformed on this in Top Ten Auto Stories of 2012). Reasons for this include the continued significant price increase between hybrids and traditionally powered vehicles, and a large number of traditionally powered vehicles that achieve similar mileage targets as those in the hybrid segment.
