More auto sales fireworks coming in 2011?
GM predicts that the total U.S. vehicle market in 2011 will be in the 13-13.5 million range, including medium and heavy duty trucks, up from a projected 11.8 million in 2010. Don Johnson, vice president of U.S. sales operations provided the estimate on a GM sales call for analysts and media this morning.
This would be good news for U.S. taxpayers who still own about 33% of GM since it will drive up the price of the stock allowing the Treasury Department to sell more.
The longer Treasury holds the stock as the economy recovers, the more likely that taxpayers will make money on the GM bankruptcy and restructuring they financed.
The optimistic prediction is in line with what is a growing consensus among analysts that the U.S. economy in general and vehicle sales in particular are slowly recovering.
Overall, a question remains if the auto industry will ever return to the 16-17 million unit sales that it enjoyed during the most of the last decade as the U.S. economy overheated during a speculative boom.
And even larger questions remain around a jobless economic recovery that is underway with U.S. unemployment stuck at almost 10% according to official numbers, with actual unemployed and under-employed people much higher.
Fuel prices for both gasoline and diesel are also trending higher, and the prospect of a economic recovery in the U.S. as well as Europe has some speculating of gasoline can hit more than $4 gallon once again.
The biggest problem in the U.S. economy remains the housing market, which has not cleared since its collapse during the Great Recession. Millions more of newly foreclosed homes will come on the market this year, further depressing prices, according to economists.
About Ken Zino
Ken Zino, publisher (kzhw@aol.com), is a versatile auto industry participant with global experience spanning decades in print and broadcast journalism, as well as social media. He has automobile testing, marketing, public relations and communications experience. He is past president of The International Motor Press Assn, the Detroit Press Club, founding member and first President of the Automotive Press Assn. He is a member of APA, IMPA and the Midwest Automotive Press Assn.
Zino is at home on test tracks, knows his way around U.S. Congressional hearing rooms, auto company headquarters, plant floors, as well as industry research and development labs where the real mobility work is done. He can quote from court decisions, refer to instrumented road tests, analyze financial results, and profile executive personalities and corporate cultures.
He also brings an historical perspective while citing their contemporary relevance of the work of legendary auto writers such as Ken Purdy, Jim Dunne or Jerry Flint, or writers such as Red Smith, Mark Twain, Thomas Jefferson – all to bring perspective to a chaotic automotive universe.
Above all, decades after he first drove a car, Zino still revels in the sound of the exhaust as the throttle is blipped and the driver’s rush that occurs when the entry, apex and exit points of a turn are smoothly and swiftly crossed. It’s the beginning of a perfect lap.
AutoInformed has an editorial philosophy that loves transportation machines of all kinds while promoting critical thinking about the future use of cars and trucks.
Zino builds AutoInformed from his background in automotive journalism starting at Hearst Publishing in New York City on Motor and MotorTech Magazines and car testing where he reviewed hundreds of vehicles in his decade-long stint as the Detroit Bureau Chief of Road & Track magazine. Zino has also worked in Europe, and Asia – now the largest automotive market in the world with China at its center.
