Total new-vehicle sales for July 2023, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach 1,320,982 units, a 21.5% increase from July 2022, according to a joint forecast released today from J.D. Power and GlobalData.* Total sales of new vehicles this month are expected to reach 1,320,982 units, a 21.5% increase compared with July 2022 when adjusted for selling days.
Bidenomics is clearly working in AutoInformed’s point of view. (July 2023 has 25 selling days, one less than July 2022.) Comparing the same sales volume without adjusting for the number of selling days translates to an increase of 16.8% year-over-year. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 16 million units, up 2.6 million units from July 2022.
In spite of the Federal Reserve Bank’s best efforts to sink the economy, inflation is dropping, employment is up and consumers are spending.
“July continues the prevailing theme of robust sales growth thus far in 2023, facilitated by amplified vehicle production and pent-up consumer demand. July year-to-date total sales will be slightly more than 9.0 million units – an increase of 14.4% from a year ago, but still below pre-pandemic sales levels, which were north of 9.8 million. As sales volumes improve, the average new-vehicle retail transaction prices are declining modestly, down 1.9% from July 2022,” said Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power.
July Forecast Details
- The average new-vehicle retail transaction price in July is expected to reach $45,305, down $866 from July 2022. The previous high for any month,$47,362, was set in December 2022.
- Average incentive spending per unit in July is expected to reach $1,888, up from $977 in July 2022. Spending as a percentage of the average MSRP is expected to increase to 3.7%, up 1.7 percentage points from July 2022.
- Average incentive spending per unit on trucks/SUVs in July is expected to be $1972, up $1045 from a year ago, while the average spending on cars is expected to be $1648, up $798 from a year ago.
- Retail buyers are on pace to spend $46.3 billion on new vehicles, up $2.7 billion from July 2022.
- Truck/SUVs are on pace to account for 77.9% of new-vehicle retail sales in July.
- Fleet sales are expected to total 237,076 units in July, up 61.3% from July 2022 on a selling day adjusted basis. Fleet volume is expected to account for 17.9% of total light-vehicle sales, up from 13.5% a year ago.
- Average interest rates for new-vehicle loans are expected to increase to 7.1%, 180 basis points higher than a year ago.
“With a record score of 51 on the J.D. Power EV Index, EVs are more than halfway to achieving parity with gas-powered vehicles. Affordability remains the top factor, improving by one point to a score of 95. Interest and adoption also rise, as the EV market share in June reached an all-time high of 8.6%,” said Elizabeth Krear, vice president, electric vehicle practice at J.D. Power. “This begs the question, how does a record EV Index, supported by record EV retail share, fit with reports that EV inventory is growing rapidly? While EV inventory has more than doubled to 6.7% from 3.3% a year ago, that’s only half of the story. Consumers are buying more EVs, but Tesla’s aggressive price cuts in pursuit of market share have increased its EV lead. Retail share for all other EVs in June ended at 3.0%, an increase of only 0.9 percentage points from a year ago. Tesla, however, has grown 1.9 percentage points to 5.6%.”
*GlobalData
GlobalData says that “4000 of the world’s largest companies, including over 70% of FTSE 100 and 60% of Fortune 100 companies, make more timely and better business decisions thanks to GlobalData’s unique data, expert analysis and innovative solutions, all in one platform. GlobalData’s mission is to help our clients decode the future to be more successful and innovative across a range of industries, including the healthcare, consumer, retail, financial, technology and professional services sectors.” J.D. Power is also part of GlobalData. Inquiries at: customersuccess.automotive@globaldata.com.
US July Vehicle Sales Forecast Up Significantly Again
Total new-vehicle sales for July 2023, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach 1,320,982 units, a 21.5% increase from July 2022, according to a joint forecast released today from J.D. Power and GlobalData.* Total sales of new vehicles this month are expected to reach 1,320,982 units, a 21.5% increase compared with July 2022 when adjusted for selling days.
Bidenomics is clearly working in AutoInformed’s point of view. (July 2023 has 25 selling days, one less than July 2022.) Comparing the same sales volume without adjusting for the number of selling days translates to an increase of 16.8% year-over-year. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 16 million units, up 2.6 million units from July 2022.
In spite of the Federal Reserve Bank’s best efforts to sink the economy, inflation is dropping, employment is up and consumers are spending.
“July continues the prevailing theme of robust sales growth thus far in 2023, facilitated by amplified vehicle production and pent-up consumer demand. July year-to-date total sales will be slightly more than 9.0 million units – an increase of 14.4% from a year ago, but still below pre-pandemic sales levels, which were north of 9.8 million. As sales volumes improve, the average new-vehicle retail transaction prices are declining modestly, down 1.9% from July 2022,” said Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power.
July Forecast Details
“With a record score of 51 on the J.D. Power EV Index, EVs are more than halfway to achieving parity with gas-powered vehicles. Affordability remains the top factor, improving by one point to a score of 95. Interest and adoption also rise, as the EV market share in June reached an all-time high of 8.6%,” said Elizabeth Krear, vice president, electric vehicle practice at J.D. Power. “This begs the question, how does a record EV Index, supported by record EV retail share, fit with reports that EV inventory is growing rapidly? While EV inventory has more than doubled to 6.7% from 3.3% a year ago, that’s only half of the story. Consumers are buying more EVs, but Tesla’s aggressive price cuts in pursuit of market share have increased its EV lead. Retail share for all other EVs in June ended at 3.0%, an increase of only 0.9 percentage points from a year ago. Tesla, however, has grown 1.9 percentage points to 5.6%.”
*GlobalData
GlobalData says that “4000 of the world’s largest companies, including over 70% of FTSE 100 and 60% of Fortune 100 companies, make more timely and better business decisions thanks to GlobalData’s unique data, expert analysis and innovative solutions, all in one platform. GlobalData’s mission is to help our clients decode the future to be more successful and innovative across a range of industries, including the healthcare, consumer, retail, financial, technology and professional services sectors.” J.D. Power is also part of GlobalData. Inquiries at: customersuccess.automotive@globaldata.com.