Whither Diesel? – Viable Fuel or Blah, Blah, Blah…

The fuel economy benefits of diesels come with many undesirable or deadly effects.

Speaking to the International Motor Press Association* today Allen Schaeffer, executive director of the Diesel Technology Forum, and Keith Brandis, from Volvo Group’s** Chief Technology office, both made provocative claims that diesel fuel and diesel trucks have a much bigger future than EV advocates, environmentalists and public policy nerds assume.

At first this seems more blah, blah, blah around doing something about Global Warming and extreme, deadly weather caused by burning fossil fuels. However, both had reasoned observations backed by data for what turned out to be a rarity in our poisoned political climate of resentments and wanton constitutional destruction that is burning far hotter – way beyond any inferno caused by CO2.

Schaeffer’s view is that diesel will most likely be the predominant fuel choice of the trucking industry for the rest of this decade. “The availability and the performance of diesel – the fact that it is on a path to get more efficient and cleaner with bio-fuels – the many uncertainties with nascent alternatives when combined with trucking industry practices and investments” make this so. Schaeffer thinks that diesel is the technology that will dominate commercial trucking through the end of this decade. In some case even beyond since more than 95% of trucking fleets are comprised of 20 trucks or fewer. (AutoInformed: Ford Embraces Paris Climate Agreement Globally; Environmental About Face – General Motors Ditching Internal Combustion Engines by 2035. Carbon Neutral by 2040?; Amazon Wants to Meet the Paris Agreement 10 Years Early)

Schaeffer said when evaluating fuels, only diesel has the full package that serves all the trucking industry’s needs including:

• Availability of vehicles and fuel to meet every kind of trucking need
• A 24/7, coast to coast, national fueling, parts, and servicing network
• Emissions performance achieving near zero emissions today, with further reductions in the next 3-5 years; increasing efficiency to meet the second phase of greenhouse gas regulatory requirements
• Capabilities to use low-carbon renewable biodiesel fuels already available that reduce GHG by up to 80% without requiring new investments in vehicles or infrastructure
• Million-mile durability
• Established secondary truck market with high resale value

Volvo’s Keith Brandis noted that Volvo – as part of the Paris Agreement and a JV with Daimler Truck – is committed to have a 2050 running fleet that is 100% fossil-fuel free. Given roughly a ten-year period to turn over the fleet, this means starting in 2040 Volvo will likely be selling non-diesel vehicles. (AutoInformed: Kansas City to Assemble All-Electric Ford E-Transit; EU Parliament Confirms Deal on Climate Neutrality by 2050; Daimler Truck, Volvo Group Create “cellcentric” Fuel-Cell JV)

Longer term there are encouraging environmental trends. California with its strict diesel regulations and its low carbon fuel mandate presents the possibility that one could get four-times the Greenhouse Gas reduction that having all EVs on the road would result in. Even in environmentally savvy and clean air dedicated California, regulations allow for 60% diesel sales in 2035, but that of course is subject to change. Big oil, virtually eternal supporters of befouling the atmosphere, is starting to make investments in cleaner fuels – Philips 66, Marathon and others.

The IMPA meeting occurred on the same day that consultancy LMC Automotive said January’s “diesel share of new car sales in the region was the strongest since August of last year as plug-ins took something of a back seat after a strong end to 2021 and conventional diesel and gasoline cars saw stronger demand. The chip crisis continues to hit overall availability of product but pressure to focus on electrified vehicles from a CO2 target standpoint was much reduced in January… A notable change from December’s result occurred in Germany where diesel share swung from 20.1% to 28.3% from December to January. Conversely, BEV share of car sales went from 21.3% to 11.4% in the same period, but will no doubt get back on track in subsequent months.”

* Disclosure – Ken Zino was once president of IMPA

** This Volvo is not the Chinese-owned car company, but the now a separate one that sells trucks, buses, construction equipment, marine engines, and industrial equipment.