Click to enlarge.
During May 2024, the Chinese Light Vehicle (LV) market showed a firm uptick with continuous structural optimization, according to an analysis and data released by the respected GlobalData consultancy.* Within the LV segment, Passenger Vehicle (PV) sales, influenced by the high base of the same period last year, declined by 3.5% YoY, yet still accounted for 1.7 million units. Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) sales totaled 222,000, a Year-over-Year decline of 0.6%.
“Domestic LV sales, excluding exports, reached 1.9 million units, marking a 3.2% year-on-year (YoY) decrease but a commendable 5.0% month-on-month (MoM) increase,” GlobalData said.**
LV production for May was recorded at 2.3 million, a YoY increase of 1.6%, and a minor MoM decline of 1.0%. “When considering the cumulative output for the year to date, volume has reached an impressive 10.9 million units, demonstrating commendable growth of 6.5%. Breaking down the figures further, PV production, which accounts for 90% of the overall LV production, remained stable in May at 2.0 mn units, virtually unchanged from the previous month, with YoY growth of 1.2%. The production figures for Chinese OEMs showed a significant increase of 16.6% YoY, contrasting with a substantial decrease of 18.9% YoY in production for joint venture (JV) brands,” GlobalData said.
The LCV segment reported “a more dynamic performance,” with volumes for May reaching 262,000, “reflecting a healthy YoY increase of 5.1%.” Exports in May showed a slight deceleration, “yet it remained robust, with shipments reaching 390,000 units. This is a significant YoY increase of 26%, with exports making up 19% of the total PV production, “underscoring their contribution to the overall growth of output. The ranking of OEMs by export volume continues to be led by Chery, SAIC, and Geely, which together account for 46% of the total export volume,” GlobalData said.
GlobalData Observations and Commentary
- Despite recent disruptions from external factors, particularly the EU announcement of increased tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, the export figures may experience short-term volatility. However, the long-term outlook for the new energy export market remains optimistic and promising.
- On a counterbalancing note, these challenges are also expected to accelerate the expansion of Chinese automotive companies establishing manufacturing facilities overseas, thus potentially mitigating the impact of tariffs and solidifying their global presence.
- In May, China’s NEV (new electric vehicle) output surged to 886,000, a substantial YoY increase of 30% and a modest MoM growth of 9%. “This impressive output has driven the NEV market penetration rate to 42.6%, highlighting a significant shift in market dynamics and a strategic realignment by domestic manufacturers.”
- The Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) segment contributed 461,000 units to the total NEV output, a more moderate YoY increase of 10.6%. Despite this steady growth, the MoM increase was notably higher at 19.1%.
- However, BEV share of NEV sales has declined to below 60%, deviating from the original forecast that anticipated a 65% share for an extended period. This shift may be attributed to the development of hybrid technology, especially in the interim period before the widespread adoption of solid-state batteries.
- The Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) segment has excelled, with a YoY increase of 76.1%, producing 273k units. The PHEV segment also demonstrated robust MoM growth of 7.9%. This sustained high growth rate reflects a burgeoning consumer preference for PHEVs, which offer the combined benefits of electric propulsion and traditional ICE, catering to a diverse range of driving needs and preferences.
GlobalData Forecast
- In this month’s revision of our short-term forecast, despite May’s sales meeting our expectations, we have decided to increase our 2024 PV sales forecast by 208,000 units. This upward revision is prompted by the government’s recent policy announcements, which are expected to significantly boost sales in the latter half of 2024.
- The forecast for LCV remains mostly stable, with only a slight adjustment in 2024. As a result, our 2024 LV sales have been raised by 1.8% (higher than the initial 1% estimate), targeting a total of 25.7 million units.
- “It should be emphasized that this forecast adjustment pertains solely to 2024. The forecast for 2025 and beyond remains unaffected by this update.”
*GlobalData
GlobalData says that “4000 of the world’s largest companies, including over 70% of FTSE 100 and 60% of Fortune 100 companies, make more timely and better business decisions thanks to GlobalData’s unique data, expert analysis and innovative solutions, all in one platform. GlobalData’s mission is to help our clients decode the future to be more successful and innovative across a range of industries, including the healthcare, consumer, retail, financial, technology and professional services sectors.” J.D. Power is also part of GlobalData. Inquiries at: [email protected]
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Chinese Light Vehicle Market Recuperating In May
Click to enlarge.
During May 2024, the Chinese Light Vehicle (LV) market showed a firm uptick with continuous structural optimization, according to an analysis and data released by the respected GlobalData consultancy.* Within the LV segment, Passenger Vehicle (PV) sales, influenced by the high base of the same period last year, declined by 3.5% YoY, yet still accounted for 1.7 million units. Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) sales totaled 222,000, a Year-over-Year decline of 0.6%.
“Domestic LV sales, excluding exports, reached 1.9 million units, marking a 3.2% year-on-year (YoY) decrease but a commendable 5.0% month-on-month (MoM) increase,” GlobalData said.**
LV production for May was recorded at 2.3 million, a YoY increase of 1.6%, and a minor MoM decline of 1.0%. “When considering the cumulative output for the year to date, volume has reached an impressive 10.9 million units, demonstrating commendable growth of 6.5%. Breaking down the figures further, PV production, which accounts for 90% of the overall LV production, remained stable in May at 2.0 mn units, virtually unchanged from the previous month, with YoY growth of 1.2%. The production figures for Chinese OEMs showed a significant increase of 16.6% YoY, contrasting with a substantial decrease of 18.9% YoY in production for joint venture (JV) brands,” GlobalData said.
The LCV segment reported “a more dynamic performance,” with volumes for May reaching 262,000, “reflecting a healthy YoY increase of 5.1%.” Exports in May showed a slight deceleration, “yet it remained robust, with shipments reaching 390,000 units. This is a significant YoY increase of 26%, with exports making up 19% of the total PV production, “underscoring their contribution to the overall growth of output. The ranking of OEMs by export volume continues to be led by Chery, SAIC, and Geely, which together account for 46% of the total export volume,” GlobalData said.
GlobalData Observations and Commentary
GlobalData Forecast
*GlobalData
GlobalData says that “4000 of the world’s largest companies, including over 70% of FTSE 100 and 60% of Fortune 100 companies, make more timely and better business decisions thanks to GlobalData’s unique data, expert analysis and innovative solutions, all in one platform. GlobalData’s mission is to help our clients decode the future to be more successful and innovative across a range of industries, including the healthcare, consumer, retail, financial, technology and professional services sectors.” J.D. Power is also part of GlobalData. Inquiries at: [email protected]
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