GM Projects Strong Earnings, Improved Cash Flow in 2019

AutoInformed on GM Kisses Trump's ButtGeneral Motors Co. (NYSE: GM told investors that it expects earnings growth in 2019, compared to projected 2018 full-year results. Earnings per share diluted-adjusted of between $6.50 and $7.00 were predicted, along with adjusted automotive free cash flow of between $4.5 billion and $6 billion. GM expects 2018 EPS-diluted-adjusted and adjusted automotive free cash flow to exceed the guidance of adjusted earnings of between $5.80 and $6.20 per share provided when reporting its third quarter 2018 earnings on 31 October 2018. (GM Q3 Profits Ambush Analysts – Income $2.5 Billion EBIT)

In 2019, despite a diminishing vehicle market, GM expects the overall U.S. volume to remain strong, projecting total industry sales in the low 17-million range. The company will benefit from a full year of production from GM’s all-new Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra light-duty full-size pickups. The trucks have contributed to retail market share growth in the light- duty pickup segment every month since August, with average transaction prices that have surpassed those of key competitors.

GM said another plus in 2019 will be the ongoing launches of the Cadillac XT4 and Chevrolet Blazer SUV, and the introduction of the all- new Cadillac XT6 luxury SUV. Cadillac will be GM’s lead electric vehicle brand and will introduce the first model from the company’s all- new battery electric vehicle architecture, GM’s foundation for an advanced family of profitable EVs.

The flexible “BEV 3platform will provide an assortment of body styles and will be offered in electric front-wheel, rear- wheel and all-wheel drive configurations. In what could be either a decisive advantage or crushing capital investment in pursuit of a market that never emerges, BEV 3’s critical components – including the battery cells – are being designed for usability across all programs. The battery system will also be adjustable, based on vehicle price positioning and customer requirements. Meanwhile the launches of an all-new truck portfolio in the U.S. and crossovers globally will continue.

International Markets

Of note in the high risk, high reward segments, GM expects to start launching its all-new global family of vehicles in 2019 in China, followed by South America and Mexico. The first crossover model will be the Chevrolet Tracker. These vehicles are expected to capture growth in key global markets and represent one-in-ten GM vehicles sold globally by 2020.

In South America, GM claims it has lowered its breakeven point by 40% but is continuing to look for ways to improve business performance. With Chevrolet as the market leader, the company can leverage improvement in the macro environment that it has no control over.

Restructuring actions have placed GM Korea “on a path to enterprise-level profitability.”

GM China

GM views the tariff and trade-war troubled Chinese market – the world’s largest – as well- positioned for long-term growth, even with recent trials faced by the industry and economy. The company expects 2019 China industry retail sales to be in line with 2018 levels of nearly 27 million.

GM China will launch  more than 20 all-new or refreshed vehicles in 2019. Those new products include compact cars and crossovers from GM’s new global vehicle family, and “new-energy” vehicles.

Commercializing Autonomous Vehicles

Cruise is “progressing toward commercializing self-driving vehicles in a dense urban environment this year.” GM notes that Cruise, which could be an easy spin-off, is deeply resourced (it’s worth ~$15 billion) to succeed, with more than 1,100 employees, a new office in Seattle, and $5 billion in external capital raised since May 2018.

Last October, GM announced that Honda will join Cruise to build a new autonomous vehicle. The purpose-built AV will serve a wide variety of uses and be manufactured at high volume for global deployment. In addition to its $750 million equity investment in Cruise, Honda committed another $2 billion to Cruise, including development costs for the purpose-built AV.

“Cruise continues to focus on the entirety of the autonomous vehicle ecosystem, signing a partnership with DoorDash for food delivery this past week,” GM said.

About Ken Zino

Ken Zino, publisher (kzhw@aol.com), is a versatile auto industry participant with global experience spanning decades in print and broadcast journalism, as well as social media. He has automobile testing, marketing, public relations and communications experience. He is past president of The International Motor Press Assn, the Detroit Press Club, founding member and first President of the Automotive Press Assn. He is a member of APA, IMPA and the Midwest Automotive Press Assn. Zino is at home on test tracks, knows his way around U.S. Congressional hearing rooms, auto company headquarters, plant floors, as well as industry research and development labs where the real mobility work is done. He can quote from court decisions, refer to instrumented road tests, analyze financial results, and profile executive personalities and corporate cultures. He also brings an historical perspective while citing their contemporary relevance of the work of legendary auto writers such as Ken Purdy, Jim Dunne or Jerry Flint, or writers such as Red Smith, Mark Twain, Thomas Jefferson – all to bring perspective to a chaotic automotive universe. Above all, decades after he first drove a car, Zino still revels in the sound of the exhaust as the throttle is blipped and the driver’s rush that occurs when the entry, apex and exit points of a turn are smoothly and swiftly crossed. It’s the beginning of a perfect lap. AutoInformed has an editorial philosophy that loves transportation machines of all kinds while promoting critical thinking about the future use of cars and trucks. Zino builds AutoInformed from his background in automotive journalism starting at Hearst Publishing in New York City on Motor and MotorTech Magazines and car testing where he reviewed hundreds of vehicles in his decade-long stint as the Detroit Bureau Chief of Road & Track magazine. Zino has also worked in Europe, and Asia – now the largest automotive market in the world with China at its center.
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