Forecast new-vehicle sales will increase 13% year-over-year to a total of 1.7 million in December 2015, resulting in an estimated 18 million seasonally adjusted annual rate or SAAR. If accurate, December will end the biggest year of U.S. new-car sales ever recoreded with total light vehicle sales of ~17.5 million, up 6.1% compared to 2014 totals. The previous high was 17.35 million units in 2000.
“December has become one of the biggest sales months of the year, helped by year-end targets and prominent holiday sales events,” said Tim Fleming, analyst for Kelley Blue Book. “As we move into the new year, expect this strength to continue, although at a slower rate than this year. In 2016, Kelley Blue Book forecasts sales in the range of 17.5 million to 18 million units, which would represent another record-breaking year.”
There are several factors that could disrupt the new-car sales momentum, including rising interest rates, an increasing supply of off-lease units that could weaken used-car prices, and increasing manufacturer incentive spending in evidence during recent months. Whether this is a genuine decrease in consumer demand is unknowable at this time.
