Forecast new-vehicle sales will increase 13% year-over-year to a total of 1.7 million in December 2015, resulting in an estimated 18 million seasonally adjusted annual rate or SAAR. If accurate, December will end the biggest year of U.S. new-car sales ever recoreded with total light vehicle sales of ~17.5 million, up 6.1% compared to 2014 totals. The previous high was 17.35 million units in 2000.
“December has become one of the biggest sales months of the year, helped by year-end targets and prominent holiday sales events,” said Tim Fleming, analyst for Kelley Blue Book. “As we move into the new year, expect this strength to continue, although at a slower rate than this year. In 2016, Kelley Blue Book forecasts sales in the range of 17.5 million to 18 million units, which would represent another record-breaking year.”
There are several factors that could disrupt the new-car sales momentum, including rising interest rates, an increasing supply of off-lease units that could weaken used-car prices, and increasing manufacturer incentive spending in evidence during recent months. Whether this is a genuine decrease in consumer demand is unknowable at this time.
About Ken Zino
Ken Zino, editor and publisher of AutoInformed, is a versatile auto industry participant with global experience spanning decades in print and broadcast journalism, as well as social media. He has automobile testing, marketing, public relations and communications experience. He is past president of The International Motor Press Assn, the Detroit Press Club, founding member and first President of the Automotive Press Assn. He is a member of APA, IMPA and the Midwest Automotive Press Assn.
He also brings an historical perspective while citing their contemporary relevance of the work of legendary auto writers such as Ken Purdy, Jim Dunne or Jerry Flint, or writers such as Red Smith, Mark Twain, Thomas Jefferson – all to bring perspective to a chaotic automotive universe.
Above all, decades after he first drove a car, Zino still revels in the sound of the exhaust as the throttle is blipped during a downshift and the driver’s rush that occurs when the entry, apex and exit points of a turn are smoothly and swiftly crossed. It’s the beginning of a perfect lap.
AutoInformed has an editorial philosophy that loves transportation machines of all kinds while promoting critical thinking about the future use of cars and trucks.
Zino builds AutoInformed from his background in automotive journalism starting at Hearst Publishing in New York City on Motor and MotorTech Magazines and car testing where he reviewed hundreds of vehicles in his decade-long stint as the Detroit Bureau Chief of Road & Track magazine. Zino has also worked in Europe, and Asia – now the largest automotive market in the world with China at its center.
