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Wholesale used-vehicle prices (mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted) were higher in July compared to June. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI)* rose to 201.6, a decline of 4.8% from a year ago. The seasonal adjustment to the index amplified the impact on the month, resulting in values that rose 2.8% month-over-month. The non-adjusted price in July increased by 0.6% compared to June, moving the unadjusted average price down 5.9% year over year, according to a division of Cox Automotive.
“In late June, wholesale value declines slowed, and that trend continued throughout July as we saw values appreciate over the course of the month,” said Jeremy Robb, senior director of Economic and Industry Insights at Cox Automotive. “The sales conversion rate has been higher for each week in July, and that translated to higher prices overall at the wholesale level for the month. We are just beginning to see lower lease maturities for the key 3-year-old segment, and that impact will be felt over the rest of this year and into 2025 and 2026. As supply tightens for this key segment for the used vehicle market, we expect to see variances from historical average depreciation rates.”
Manheim Data
During July, Manheim Market Report (MMR) values saw weekly increases in three of the last four weeks, “clearly higher than what is normal for weekly value changes over the month.” During the last four weeks, the Three-Year-Old Index increased an aggregate of 1.1%, including a rise of 0.5% in the last week of the month. Those same four weeks delivered an average decrease of 0.6% between 2014 and 2019, – the appreciation trend for the month of July contrasted against long-term averages.
The major market segments all experienced seasonally adjusted prices that were down year over year in July, though the pace of declines has slowed from previous periods. Compared to July 2023, SUVs declined by 5.2%, and pickups fell by 5.3%. Midsize cars fell a bit more, declining 6.0% against the prior year, as luxury was down 6.2%, and compact cars continued to show the worst performance, falling by 6.4%. Compared to the previous month, we saw some changes in performance, with midsize cars rising by 3.8% and compact cars increasing by 3.3%, both higher than the average rise of 2.8%. Showing rises less than the market, SUVs rose by 2.7% in the month, pickups were higher by 2.6%, and luxury overall increased by 1.6% against the prior month.
*Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index
By applying statistical analysis to its database of more than 5 million used vehicle transactions annually, Manheim has developed a measurement of used vehicle prices that is independent of underlying shifts in the characteristics of vehicles being sold. The Manheim Index is increasingly recognized by both financial and economic analysts as the premier indicator of pricing trends in the used vehicle market, but should not be considered indicative or predictive of any individual remarketer’s results.
July Manheim Index Show Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Up
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Wholesale used-vehicle prices (mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted) were higher in July compared to June. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI)* rose to 201.6, a decline of 4.8% from a year ago. The seasonal adjustment to the index amplified the impact on the month, resulting in values that rose 2.8% month-over-month. The non-adjusted price in July increased by 0.6% compared to June, moving the unadjusted average price down 5.9% year over year, according to a division of Cox Automotive.
“In late June, wholesale value declines slowed, and that trend continued throughout July as we saw values appreciate over the course of the month,” said Jeremy Robb, senior director of Economic and Industry Insights at Cox Automotive. “The sales conversion rate has been higher for each week in July, and that translated to higher prices overall at the wholesale level for the month. We are just beginning to see lower lease maturities for the key 3-year-old segment, and that impact will be felt over the rest of this year and into 2025 and 2026. As supply tightens for this key segment for the used vehicle market, we expect to see variances from historical average depreciation rates.”
Manheim Data
During July, Manheim Market Report (MMR) values saw weekly increases in three of the last four weeks, “clearly higher than what is normal for weekly value changes over the month.” During the last four weeks, the Three-Year-Old Index increased an aggregate of 1.1%, including a rise of 0.5% in the last week of the month. Those same four weeks delivered an average decrease of 0.6% between 2014 and 2019, – the appreciation trend for the month of July contrasted against long-term averages.
The major market segments all experienced seasonally adjusted prices that were down year over year in July, though the pace of declines has slowed from previous periods. Compared to July 2023, SUVs declined by 5.2%, and pickups fell by 5.3%. Midsize cars fell a bit more, declining 6.0% against the prior year, as luxury was down 6.2%, and compact cars continued to show the worst performance, falling by 6.4%. Compared to the previous month, we saw some changes in performance, with midsize cars rising by 3.8% and compact cars increasing by 3.3%, both higher than the average rise of 2.8%. Showing rises less than the market, SUVs rose by 2.7% in the month, pickups were higher by 2.6%, and luxury overall increased by 1.6% against the prior month.
*Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index
By applying statistical analysis to its database of more than 5 million used vehicle transactions annually, Manheim has developed a measurement of used vehicle prices that is independent of underlying shifts in the characteristics of vehicles being sold. The Manheim Index is increasingly recognized by both financial and economic analysts as the premier indicator of pricing trends in the used vehicle market, but should not be considered indicative or predictive of any individual remarketer’s results.