Although Black Friday promotions lift sales month-over-month, Edmunds analysts say November signals a sales slowdown through the end of 2018. The firm forecasts that 1,376,253 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in November for an estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 17.3 million. This reflects a 1.3% increase in sales from October 2018, but a -1.3% decrease from November 2017.
This month marks the first drop since 2009 in November sales, which have grown year-over-year in part due to increasing demand following the Great Recession, and partially because November is becoming a bigger sales month as automakers and dealers cash in on Black Friday.
Although sales remain healthy, increasing market saturation, rising transaction prices and elevated interest rates continue to create problems for all automakers. This probably will continue into 2019, perhaps for all of 2019 AutoInformed opines as the illusion of the stimulus effect of the Trump tax cuts for the wealthy morphs into the reality of declining middle-class wealth.
“Retailers have been pushing Black Friday car deals through the entire month of November, so unless they decide to pull out all the stops in the 11th hour, this is likely going to be the first time we see November sales take a dip in nearly a decade,” said Jeremy Acevedo, Edmunds’ manager of industry analysis.
Edmunds estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 14.3 million vehicles in November 2018, with fleet transactions accounting for 17.2% of total sales. An estimated 3.0 million used vehicles will be sold in November 2018, for a SAAR of 39.8 million (compared to 3.3 million — or a SAAR of 39.6 million — in October).
For the first time, estimates for a struggling, under SEC investigation Tesla are included in the Edmunds retail SAAR calculations, volume forecasts and market share estimates for November.
About Ken Zino
Ken Zino, editor and publisher of AutoInformed, is a versatile auto industry participant with global experience spanning decades in print and broadcast journalism, as well as social media. He has automobile testing, marketing, public relations and communications experience. He is past president of The International Motor Press Assn, the Detroit Press Club, founding member and first President of the Automotive Press Assn. He is a member of APA, IMPA and the Midwest Automotive Press Assn.
He also brings an historical perspective while citing their contemporary relevance of the work of legendary auto writers such as Ken Purdy, Jim Dunne or Jerry Flint, or writers such as Red Smith, Mark Twain, Thomas Jefferson – all to bring perspective to a chaotic automotive universe.
Above all, decades after he first drove a car, Zino still revels in the sound of the exhaust as the throttle is blipped during a downshift and the driver’s rush that occurs when the entry, apex and exit points of a turn are smoothly and swiftly crossed. It’s the beginning of a perfect lap.
AutoInformed has an editorial philosophy that loves transportation machines of all kinds while promoting critical thinking about the future use of cars and trucks.
Zino builds AutoInformed from his background in automotive journalism starting at Hearst Publishing in New York City on Motor and MotorTech Magazines and car testing where he reviewed hundreds of vehicles in his decade-long stint as the Detroit Bureau Chief of Road & Track magazine. Zino has also worked in Europe, and Asia – now the largest automotive market in the world with China at its center.
November Auto Sales Forecast Down First Time Since 2009
This month marks the first drop since 2009 in November sales, which have grown year-over-year in part due to increasing demand following the Great Recession, and partially because November is becoming a bigger sales month as automakers and dealers cash in on Black Friday.
Although sales remain healthy, increasing market saturation, rising transaction prices and elevated interest rates continue to create problems for all automakers. This probably will continue into 2019, perhaps for all of 2019 AutoInformed opines as the illusion of the stimulus effect of the Trump tax cuts for the wealthy morphs into the reality of declining middle-class wealth.
“Retailers have been pushing Black Friday car deals through the entire month of November, so unless they decide to pull out all the stops in the 11th hour, this is likely going to be the first time we see November sales take a dip in nearly a decade,” said Jeremy Acevedo, Edmunds’ manager of industry analysis.
Edmunds estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 14.3 million vehicles in November 2018, with fleet transactions accounting for 17.2% of total sales. An estimated 3.0 million used vehicles will be sold in November 2018, for a SAAR of 39.8 million (compared to 3.3 million — or a SAAR of 39.6 million — in October).
For the first time, estimates for a struggling, under SEC investigation Tesla are included in the Edmunds retail SAAR calculations, volume forecasts and market share estimates for November.
About Ken Zino
Ken Zino, editor and publisher of AutoInformed, is a versatile auto industry participant with global experience spanning decades in print and broadcast journalism, as well as social media. He has automobile testing, marketing, public relations and communications experience. He is past president of The International Motor Press Assn, the Detroit Press Club, founding member and first President of the Automotive Press Assn. He is a member of APA, IMPA and the Midwest Automotive Press Assn. He also brings an historical perspective while citing their contemporary relevance of the work of legendary auto writers such as Ken Purdy, Jim Dunne or Jerry Flint, or writers such as Red Smith, Mark Twain, Thomas Jefferson – all to bring perspective to a chaotic automotive universe. Above all, decades after he first drove a car, Zino still revels in the sound of the exhaust as the throttle is blipped during a downshift and the driver’s rush that occurs when the entry, apex and exit points of a turn are smoothly and swiftly crossed. It’s the beginning of a perfect lap. AutoInformed has an editorial philosophy that loves transportation machines of all kinds while promoting critical thinking about the future use of cars and trucks. Zino builds AutoInformed from his background in automotive journalism starting at Hearst Publishing in New York City on Motor and MotorTech Magazines and car testing where he reviewed hundreds of vehicles in his decade-long stint as the Detroit Bureau Chief of Road & Track magazine. Zino has also worked in Europe, and Asia – now the largest automotive market in the world with China at its center.