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Tag Archives: Brookings Institute
U.S. GDP Growth Puny in Q4 2024
Fiscal policy increased U.S. GDP growth by 0.3 percentage point in the fourth quarter of 2024, the Hutchins Center Fiscal Impact Measure (FIM)* released today shows. The FIM translates changes in taxes and spending at federal, state, and local levels into changes in aggregate demand, showing the effect of fiscal policy on real GDP growth. GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the government’s latest estimate. The 0.3 percentage point increase in the fourth quarter was largely the result of slightly stimulative taxes and transfers.
“We expect the FIM to turn negative in the next quarter and remain so through the end of our forecast period (the fourth quarter of 2026), largely driven by weak growth in federal and state purchases and only partially offset by strong growth in net transfers. Continue reading
Posted in news analysis
Tagged 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, auto industry commentary, autoinformed.com, automotive blog, Automotive news and analysis, Brookings Institute, Georgia Nabors, Hutchins Center Fiscal Impact Measure, Ken Zino, Louise Sheiner, Sarah Ahmad, U.S. GDP Growth, X @KenAutoinformed
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Brexit – Angry Voter Costs Greater Than Said. Trump Parallels Abound
In a paper published in November and brought to AutoInformed’s attention today by The Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at the estimable Brookings Institute, angry voters in the United Kingdom who overwhelming approved leaving the European Union in the so-called Brexit* referendum resulted in shrinking the UK GDP by 6% to 8% by 2025. The exhaustive research paper was authored by Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Paul Mizen, Pawel Smietanka and Gregory Thwaites.**
The negative economic effects began after the 2016 referendum. They intensified following the UK’s formal exit in 2020. This paper in AutoInformed’s view is directly relevant to Trump’s Tariff Chaos and is a harbinger of still larger negative effects to come. Continue reading →