Click to Enlarge.
January 2026 US auto sales are forecast to reach 1.13 million units, according to S&P Global Mobility. This equals an estimated sales pace of 15.2 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate, aka SAAR), a drop from the 16.0 million unit SAAR in December. However, mirroring the precedent from the prior two years – slower January sales following strong year-end close outs.*
“Weather-related impacts from cold weather and late-month winter storm activity will likely contribute to some of the mild January result,” said Chris Hopson, manager of North American light vehicle sales forecasting for S&P Global Mobility. “Setting up what could be some volatility for the monthly SAAR metric in the first half of 2026.”
Click to enlarge.
“A notable downshift for BEV sales and market share is expected through the first half of 2026, as automakers and consumers adjust to post-incentive conditions. BEV share of sales in January are estimated to be 5.3%. The roll out of new BEV product over the course of 2026 should provide a floor for the downside, but little movement is expected for the sector in the first half,” S&P Global Mobility said.
Continued development of battery-electric vehicle sales remains increasingly uncertain. The auto policy implications of the so-called One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA or One Big BAD Bill at AutoInformed.com – AutoCrat) and developing new regulatory standards could further temper long-term BEV demand growth.
The 2026 US auto sales market will continue to contend with affordability pressures and shifting EV policies. S&P Global Mobility will monitor the evolving sales environment as manufacturers and consumers adapt to changing incentive landscapes. S&P Global Mobility projects US sales volumes to reach 15.98 million units in 2026, an estimated decline of 2% from the 2025 level of 16.38 million units, “as an uncertain environment persists for auto sales levels.”
*AutoInformed on
About Ken Zino
Ken Zino, editor and publisher of AutoInformed, is a versatile auto industry participant with global experience spanning decades in print and broadcast journalism, as well as social media. He has automobile testing, marketing, public relations and communications experience. He is past president of The International Motor Press Assn, the Detroit Press Club, founding member and first President of the Automotive Press Assn. He is a member of APA, IMPA and the Midwest Automotive Press Assn.
He also brings an historical perspective while citing their contemporary relevance of the work of legendary auto writers such as Ken Purdy, Jim Dunne or Jerry Flint, or writers such as Red Smith, Mark Twain, Thomas Jefferson – all to bring perspective to a chaotic automotive universe.
Above all, decades after he first drove a car, Zino still revels in the sound of the exhaust as the throttle is blipped during a downshift and the driver’s rush that occurs when the entry, apex and exit points of a turn are smoothly and swiftly crossed. It’s the beginning of a perfect lap.
AutoInformed has an editorial philosophy that loves transportation machines of all kinds while promoting critical thinking about the future use of cars and trucks.
Zino builds AutoInformed from his background in automotive journalism starting at Hearst Publishing in New York City on Motor and MotorTech Magazines and car testing where he reviewed hundreds of vehicles in his decade-long stint as the Detroit Bureau Chief of Road & Track magazine. Zino has also worked in Europe, and Asia – now the largest automotive market in the world with China at its center.
Brr Frozen January U.S. Auto Sales
Click to Enlarge.
January 2026 US auto sales are forecast to reach 1.13 million units, according to S&P Global Mobility. This equals an estimated sales pace of 15.2 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate, aka SAAR), a drop from the 16.0 million unit SAAR in December. However, mirroring the precedent from the prior two years – slower January sales following strong year-end close outs.*
“Weather-related impacts from cold weather and late-month winter storm activity will likely contribute to some of the mild January result,” said Chris Hopson, manager of North American light vehicle sales forecasting for S&P Global Mobility. “Setting up what could be some volatility for the monthly SAAR metric in the first half of 2026.”
Click to enlarge.
“A notable downshift for BEV sales and market share is expected through the first half of 2026, as automakers and consumers adjust to post-incentive conditions. BEV share of sales in January are estimated to be 5.3%. The roll out of new BEV product over the course of 2026 should provide a floor for the downside, but little movement is expected for the sector in the first half,” S&P Global Mobility said.
Continued development of battery-electric vehicle sales remains increasingly uncertain. The auto policy implications of the so-called One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA or One Big BAD Bill at AutoInformed.com – AutoCrat) and developing new regulatory standards could further temper long-term BEV demand growth.
The 2026 US auto sales market will continue to contend with affordability pressures and shifting EV policies. S&P Global Mobility will monitor the evolving sales environment as manufacturers and consumers adapt to changing incentive landscapes. S&P Global Mobility projects US sales volumes to reach 15.98 million units in 2026, an estimated decline of 2% from the 2025 level of 16.38 million units, “as an uncertain environment persists for auto sales levels.”
*AutoInformed on
About Ken Zino
Ken Zino, editor and publisher of AutoInformed, is a versatile auto industry participant with global experience spanning decades in print and broadcast journalism, as well as social media. He has automobile testing, marketing, public relations and communications experience. He is past president of The International Motor Press Assn, the Detroit Press Club, founding member and first President of the Automotive Press Assn. He is a member of APA, IMPA and the Midwest Automotive Press Assn. He also brings an historical perspective while citing their contemporary relevance of the work of legendary auto writers such as Ken Purdy, Jim Dunne or Jerry Flint, or writers such as Red Smith, Mark Twain, Thomas Jefferson – all to bring perspective to a chaotic automotive universe. Above all, decades after he first drove a car, Zino still revels in the sound of the exhaust as the throttle is blipped during a downshift and the driver’s rush that occurs when the entry, apex and exit points of a turn are smoothly and swiftly crossed. It’s the beginning of a perfect lap. AutoInformed has an editorial philosophy that loves transportation machines of all kinds while promoting critical thinking about the future use of cars and trucks. Zino builds AutoInformed from his background in automotive journalism starting at Hearst Publishing in New York City on Motor and MotorTech Magazines and car testing where he reviewed hundreds of vehicles in his decade-long stint as the Detroit Bureau Chief of Road & Track magazine. Zino has also worked in Europe, and Asia – now the largest automotive market in the world with China at its center.