Click for more GlobalData insights.
The Chinese market -the world’s largest – maintained a strong pace in September 2023 with Light Vehicle (LV) wholesales increasing by 8% year-on-year (YoY) to 2.8 million units, according to data just relabeled by the respected consultancy GlobalData*. Passenger Vehicle (PV) sales (wholesales) increased by 7% YoY to 2.5 million units in the month. The Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV ) sector grew rapidly by 20% YoY, with sales of 0.3 million units. On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, PV sales increased by 9%, while LCV demand was boosted by 20% in September.
“We expect sales to remain strong in the coming years. This month we have again increased our full-year 2023 forecast, this time by 300,000 units, bringing the full-year forecast to 28.9 million units, a year- on-year increase of 8%. However, it should be noted that near-term downside risks exist, mainly from the liquidity crisis in the real estate sector – said to directly and indirectly account for 25% of GDP- declining exports, and high youth unemployment,” said the GlobalData Asia-Pacific Forecast Team.
GlobalData Observations
- Following the market’s weak performance in early 2023, in recent months the Chinese government has introduced a series of macro measures to stabilize economic growth and promote automobile consumption. Strong national finance measures will firmly support the development of the automobile market.
- At present, market confidence has been enhanced, production demand has simultaneously recovered, and OEMs are constantly launching new products, all of which will help to release further market demand.
- Hence, we believe that in the next few years, China’s automobile industry will achieve steady growth driven largely by the growth of exports and domestic NEV demand.
GlobalData Forecast
“We have lowered our sales forecast for 2028 by 534,000 units, 2029 by 538,000 units, and 2030 by 198,000 units per year, as the step decline of the temporary purchase tax reduction for NEVs in 2025 and 2027 will directly affect overall sales.
“The faster-than-expected ageing of the population is another factor in lowering the long-term forecast. The UN forecasts that by 2035, people aged 65 and over will account for 21% of China’s population, more than a percentage point higher than previous forecasts.”
*GlobalData
GlobalData says that “4000 of the world’s largest companies, including over 70% of FTSE 100 and 60% of Fortune 100 companies, make more timely and better business decisions thanks to GlobalData’s unique data, expert analysis and innovative solutions, all in one platform. GlobalData’s mission is to help our clients decode the future to be more successful and innovative across a range of industries, including the healthcare, consumer, retail, financial, technology and professional services sectors.” J.D. Power is also part of GlobalData. Inquiries at: customersuccess.automotive@globaldata.com.
AutoInformed on
About Ken Zino
Ken Zino, editor and publisher of AutoInformed, is a versatile auto industry participant with global experience spanning decades in print and broadcast journalism, as well as social media. He has automobile testing, marketing, public relations and communications experience. He is past president of The International Motor Press Assn, the Detroit Press Club, founding member and first President of the Automotive Press Assn. He is a member of APA, IMPA and the Midwest Automotive Press Assn.
He also brings an historical perspective while citing their contemporary relevance of the work of legendary auto writers such as Ken Purdy, Jim Dunne or Jerry Flint, or writers such as Red Smith, Mark Twain, Thomas Jefferson – all to bring perspective to a chaotic automotive universe.
Above all, decades after he first drove a car, Zino still revels in the sound of the exhaust as the throttle is blipped during a downshift and the driver’s rush that occurs when the entry, apex and exit points of a turn are smoothly and swiftly crossed. It’s the beginning of a perfect lap.
AutoInformed has an editorial philosophy that loves transportation machines of all kinds while promoting critical thinking about the future use of cars and trucks.
Zino builds AutoInformed from his background in automotive journalism starting at Hearst Publishing in New York City on Motor and MotorTech Magazines and car testing where he reviewed hundreds of vehicles in his decade-long stint as the Detroit Bureau Chief of Road & Track magazine. Zino has also worked in Europe, and Asia – now the largest automotive market in the world with China at its center.
Chinese Vehicle Market Sales Strong in September
Click for more GlobalData insights.
The Chinese market -the world’s largest – maintained a strong pace in September 2023 with Light Vehicle (LV) wholesales increasing by 8% year-on-year (YoY) to 2.8 million units, according to data just relabeled by the respected consultancy GlobalData*. Passenger Vehicle (PV) sales (wholesales) increased by 7% YoY to 2.5 million units in the month. The Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV ) sector grew rapidly by 20% YoY, with sales of 0.3 million units. On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, PV sales increased by 9%, while LCV demand was boosted by 20% in September.
“We expect sales to remain strong in the coming years. This month we have again increased our full-year 2023 forecast, this time by 300,000 units, bringing the full-year forecast to 28.9 million units, a year- on-year increase of 8%. However, it should be noted that near-term downside risks exist, mainly from the liquidity crisis in the real estate sector – said to directly and indirectly account for 25% of GDP- declining exports, and high youth unemployment,” said the GlobalData Asia-Pacific Forecast Team.
GlobalData Observations
GlobalData Forecast
“We have lowered our sales forecast for 2028 by 534,000 units, 2029 by 538,000 units, and 2030 by 198,000 units per year, as the step decline of the temporary purchase tax reduction for NEVs in 2025 and 2027 will directly affect overall sales.
“The faster-than-expected ageing of the population is another factor in lowering the long-term forecast. The UN forecasts that by 2035, people aged 65 and over will account for 21% of China’s population, more than a percentage point higher than previous forecasts.”
*GlobalData
GlobalData says that “4000 of the world’s largest companies, including over 70% of FTSE 100 and 60% of Fortune 100 companies, make more timely and better business decisions thanks to GlobalData’s unique data, expert analysis and innovative solutions, all in one platform. GlobalData’s mission is to help our clients decode the future to be more successful and innovative across a range of industries, including the healthcare, consumer, retail, financial, technology and professional services sectors.” J.D. Power is also part of GlobalData. Inquiries at: customersuccess.automotive@globaldata.com.
AutoInformed on
About Ken Zino
Ken Zino, editor and publisher of AutoInformed, is a versatile auto industry participant with global experience spanning decades in print and broadcast journalism, as well as social media. He has automobile testing, marketing, public relations and communications experience. He is past president of The International Motor Press Assn, the Detroit Press Club, founding member and first President of the Automotive Press Assn. He is a member of APA, IMPA and the Midwest Automotive Press Assn. He also brings an historical perspective while citing their contemporary relevance of the work of legendary auto writers such as Ken Purdy, Jim Dunne or Jerry Flint, or writers such as Red Smith, Mark Twain, Thomas Jefferson – all to bring perspective to a chaotic automotive universe. Above all, decades after he first drove a car, Zino still revels in the sound of the exhaust as the throttle is blipped during a downshift and the driver’s rush that occurs when the entry, apex and exit points of a turn are smoothly and swiftly crossed. It’s the beginning of a perfect lap. AutoInformed has an editorial philosophy that loves transportation machines of all kinds while promoting critical thinking about the future use of cars and trucks. Zino builds AutoInformed from his background in automotive journalism starting at Hearst Publishing in New York City on Motor and MotorTech Magazines and car testing where he reviewed hundreds of vehicles in his decade-long stint as the Detroit Bureau Chief of Road & Track magazine. Zino has also worked in Europe, and Asia – now the largest automotive market in the world with China at its center.